On a morning that started sunny but quickly turned gray and icy windy in Warsaw, Jacob, 44 years old, left the Liceu LXXXIII building in the city center, where he left behind his completed ballot and his determination to get rid of the party that was in power. , Law and Justice (PiS), after eight years of governance that “has not been good for the country”.
His words reflect the central comparison being made today to some thirty million Poles, between the continuity of the conservative populists of PiS, eight of whom are in power, and the liberal and progressive alternative of the Civic Platform (PO) – or other forces that are smaller than they can unite.
In a highly polarized context of choices regarding relations with the European Union (EU), migration policy and the exercise of the democratic rule of law, many analysts consider this to be the most important election since 1989 and the fall of communism.
However, Jacob has trouble comparing the two moments, especially since he made a point of staying away from a “dirty campaign” and used his own filtering to arrive at his final choice.
On the ballot there was an option for change because that is what is needed and if it does not come, accept democracy and “consider leaving the country”, an idea that has been mulled over for a while: “How are you Portugal? “
The movement takes hold at the doors of the austere Liceu LXXXIII, marked by two red and white national flags, with voters taking a flight of stairs to a large, heated hall on the first floor, where they will stand in a quiet and peaceful queue for a few minutes. to stand. orderly environment. , before depositing the long white ballot paper and the responses to four associated referenda into a sealed acrylic ballot box.
It was this civic ritual that Alexandra, 30 years old, just practiced, emphasizing the importance of never stopping voting and assuming her responsibilities as a Pole. But this election is different.
“For eight years we have had a party that does not represent my ideas at all and it was important for me to be here today and give a voice to a left-wing party so that the government can be different,” says the translation agency employee .
According to opinion polls, PiS, led by historic leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is at 30%, maintaining a narrow margin of four percentage points ahead of the PO of former Prime Minister and former European Council President Donald Tusk.
Alexandra says she voted for Lewica (left), a coalition that, after the polls close at 9 p.m. local time (8 p.m. in Lisbon), could confirm a preference of more than 10% in the polls and become itself consider as an option for an opposition leader, such as the Third Way (conservatives), also above 10%, when projections point to the near impossibility of the dominant forces achieving an outcome that allows them to govern alone.
In post-election scenarios, unlike the opposition, the same scenario occurs on the right, with the possibility of PiS allying with the radical ultranationalists of the Confederation, who have fallen in the polls and are no longer gaining ground. than 8% of voting intentions.
However, the margins are very narrow and politicians and analysts prefer not to take risks and protect themselves against uncertainty until the end.
“I think the only option for the opposition to seize power is to talk to each other, because everyone knows that no one will rule alone,” admits Alexandra, who takes the risk of this option, but is willing to take it because “Poles are fed up and the most important thing is to change the government.”
According to the electoral commission, registered participation until 12:00 (11:00 in Lisbon) was 22.59%, up from 18.14% four years ago, when a total of 61.7% of voters voted.
Lukas, a 47-year-old lawyer, also expressed his desire for change regarding “Poland’s decisive future and the choice in terms of presence in the EU or… further East,” in an allusion to the communist period and the suppression of freedoms.
For the time being, he understands that democracy is not yet at stake, despite the opposition’s warnings and Donald Tusk’s call that this is the last chance to save it, “but everything can change in the future” and he hopes, in addition changing the government, to return to this place, in the same climate of freedom you enjoyed today.
This polling station seems to point to the favorable environment for the opposition in the capital and in the major urban centers, in contrast to the Conservatives, who more easily penetrate the countryside, but Lukas warns that “it is not a matter of location or generations”, While points to two older women walking slowly through the melancholic street. Emilian Konopczynskiego, an educationalist from the 19th century: ‘It’s not that simple.’
If every voter corresponds to a wish in the complex Polish electoral system, then that of another lawyer, Darius, 56 years old, is the wish to see new faces, as “the two major parties fight a lot among themselves and change little”, but now “there are two or three new players on this stage”, referring to the emerging formations.
Although the latest betting odds are “50/50”, Darius is skeptical that anything profound will change in his country and predicts that “no one will win and no one will lose”.
These are the most divisive elections in recent years in Poland, with at stake eight years of absolute PiS dominance and an attitude of resistance and disobedience to EU decisions and accusations of interference in the judiciary and the armed forces, and also of strong policies and alarming about immigration.
The opposition proposes as an alternative relaxation towards Brussels, which has frozen the transfer of public funds to Warsaw due to deviations from the rule of law, and towards neighboring countries, but also strict rules on immigration, abortion and LGBT+ people.
Today, approximately 30 million voters elect 460 deputies and 100 senators in 41 constituencies. Parties that receive less than 5% of the vote and coalitions with less than 8% of support are left without parliamentary representation.
In addition to the legislative referendums, Poles voted in four referendums, two of which were devoted to immigration and asylum policy, and the other on raising the retirement age to 67 and privatizing state assets, but the opposition called for a boycott of these to vote. and will only be binding if an interest exceeds 50%.
Source: DN
