Argentines go to the polls this Sunday to elect the next president in a climate of “hopelessness”, with annual inflation hitting 140% in September and 40% of the population living in poverty. “The economy has not grown for more than a decade and collective guilt is attributed to Peronists and non-Peronists,” Andrés Malamud, a researcher at the University of Lisbon’s Institute of Social Sciences (ICS), told DN. . It is no surprise that the favorite to win is a disruptive candidate, Javier Milei. “In these ten years, Cristina reigned [Kirchner], [Maurício] Macri and Alberto [Fernández]. There is no one from what he calls the ‘political caste’ who is innocent,” Malamud explained.
Nearly 36 million voters choose the president and vice president, as well as half of the deputies and a third of the Senate. Voting is compulsory for people between 18 and 70 years old and optional for people aged 16 and 17 years and people over 70 years old. To avoid a runoff on November 19, the presidential candidate must have 45% of the vote, i.e. 40% and more than ten votes. percentage points compared to its main rival.
Libertarian economist Milei, from the A Liberdade Avança coalition, won the August primaries with more than 30% of the vote. And most polls say that the representative of the radical right will repeat this victory, with a similar percentage. His most talked about proposal is the dollarization of the economy, which will put an end to the Central Bank of Argentina, which has also promised to review the legalization of abortion – its principles are ‘life, liberty and property’.
However, Malamud explained that The most disruptive thing about Milei, a 52-year-old congressman, is that he is not a nationalist and anti-pope. ‘The most respected political leader in the world is [ex-primeira-ministra britânica] Margaret Thatcher, who won the Falklands War. And he called Pope Francis a communist,” the researcher recalled.
Closely behind in the polls, with a difference of less than a percentage point in some of them, is the candidate of the Peronist coalition União pela Pátria, current Economy Minister Sérgio Massa. President Fernández chose not to run for re-election and was away from the campaign, as was Vice President Kirchner. The 51-year-old lawyer represents a more moderate version of Peronism, promising to reduce debt and strengthen the central bank’s reserves to improve the economy.
“Massa is a miracle because he is the economy minister of near hyperinflation, but he is a viable candidate. And there are two explanations for this. The first is that he is very smart, even very skilled. And the second is that the opposition is very smart. incompetent”, said Malamud, who is a member of a party in conservative Patricia Bullrich’s Together for Change coalition, third in the polls – despite coming second in the primaries. The promises made by Macri’s former security minister, 67, include restoring “order”, cutting spending and eliminating taxes on agricultural exports.
“This is the paradox of Argentine politics. The person who has the greatest chance of winning a second round against Milei is Bullrich, but he is the one who has the least chance of reaching the second round,” explains the ICS researcher. In the polls, the possible Milei-Massa duel translates into 41%-39.9%, while a Milei-Bullrich results in 32.3%-37.4%. Malamud also said that there is no possibility for unity between Peronists and conservatives against the libertarians for the second round: “Milei is not seen as a threat to democracy by an important part of the two coalitions. He is not left out.”
What if Milei wins? What will the scenario be? “Hyperinflation is avoidable, but it is not certain that it will be avoided because Milei is looking for it. He has a dollarization project and for that he needs the peso to be worthless. And he achieves that goal. If he wins, there will be a hyper-minority in Congress,” Malamud explained. It currently has only three deputies, and the Chamber of Deputies will not be completely renewed now. “He needs a third of the House to avoid impeachment,” the investigator recalled, claiming that “if he doesn’t have a shield, a legislative shield, he will be removed from office. That is the law in Latin America.” And no one – not even Milei himself – seems available for alliances that make this protection possible.
Source: DN
