An analyst from the International Crisis Group (ICG) argued on Tuesday that the Israeli army and the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah “do not feel comfortable” opening a second front in the war against Hamas, stressing that everything depends on of Iran.
In a webinar on the theme ‘Israel, Gaza and the region: the crisis group’s perspective on the latest events’, Joost Hiltermann, director of the ICG Middle East and North Africa programme, emphasized that despite the fact that there is ‘a small escalation’ of the clashes on the Israeli border with Lebanon, “no one has yet crossed the red line”.
“Israel and Hezbollah are not comfortable causing an escalation, but everything is unstable and could change quickly if Iran sees that Hamas [movimento islamita que lançou o ataque a Israel em 07 deste mês] could be in danger from a possible land offensive by the Israeli army”said Hitlermann.
In this regard, Mairav Zonszein, ICG senior analyst for Israel, emphasized that the United States has played a “braking role” in Israel’s intentions to “try to destroy” Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, and that Washington , as well as the European Union (EU), consider it a ‘terrorist movement’.
According to Zonszein, the US has elections in about a year and wants the issue of the estimated three dozen American hostages held by Hamas to be resolved first, imposing a “brake” for this reason, he emphasized, the postponement of the offensive. also using as a ‘weapon’ the fact that 70% of Israelis believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is already facing legal proceedings related to corruption, does not have the power to repel an attack on the Islamist movement force.
Moreover, and admitting that the ground offensive could be a matter of time, he continued, the Israeli population is equally “incredulous and therefore concerned” about the “failure” of the Israeli secret services for failing to predict the attack . from Hamas.
On the other hand, there are the issues of the ceasefire, which no one wants to accept (“another unanswered question”, Hiltermann underlined), the release of hostages (“which takes time”, emphasized Tahani Mustafa, also a senior analyst at the ICG for Palestine, who also took part in the hearing) and crimes against humanity (“admittedly committed by both sides”, Zonszein emphasized).
Hiltermann, Zonszein and Mustafa condemned the disproportionate level of Israel’s retaliation against the Hamas attack and warned that the Iranian-sponsored “jihadist” movements (Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, as well as the Huthi militias in Yemen) have already made it clear that they are ready to attack Israel and open new fronts as soon as Tehran gives the “green light”.
However, the three speakers said that expanding the conflict to Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq is “in no one’s interest”, raising hopes for a rapprochement between Iran (which has hegemonic aspirations in the region) and Saudi Arabia, that would exceed Israeli ambitions. efforts to establish relations with Riyadh.
In any case, for Mustafa, the issue is becoming increasingly complex due to the divisions that exist within Palestine itself, with Hamas on one side and Fatah on the other, which frustrates expectations of the formation of an independent Palestinian state, as there appears to be no consensus to exist about the formation of an independent Palestinian state. the choice of a leader without initial reconciliation, “which seems very unlikely”.
‘Fatah itself is fragmented and Hamas is also unable to reach an internal consensus’Mustafa explained, recalling that the 2021 elections promised reconciliation, which did not happen, because “even the Palestinians themselves cannot decide what kind of leadership they want for an independent state.”
But even as the internal situation in divided Palestine makes a solution difficult, Israel is also politically and militarily fragmented, although an eventual removal of Netanyahu, who leads a far-right government, “seems far away” because no one is on the political agenda stands. the left is seen as an alternative.
‘Netanyahu has been in power for fifteen years and new elections are coming [em Israel] just three years from now. Nobody believes that [Netanyahu] to resolve the conflict, but no one presents themselves as an alternative”Zonszein insisted.
“It appears that all parties are divided, which makes the issue even more complex.”summarized Lahib Higel, also senior ICG analyst for Iraq, who served as moderator on the ‘webinar’ and admitted that the current situation in the Middle East ‘has more questions than answers’.
Source: DN
