US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, meet on Wednesday in San Francisco with an agenda full of common concerns, but also divisive issues between both countries. For North American politics expert Germano Almeida, this meeting is “a diplomatic victory” for the American leader.
“It is necessary to highlight the fact that this is a face-to-face meeting, in person. It is the first time in a year, the last time it took place on the sidelines of the G20 last year, in Indonesia, in November 2022 Furthermore, the fact that it will be in the US was somewhat unlikely taking into account the atmosphere of great tension between Washington and Beijing, it is not a unilateral summit, it is an APEC – Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation – summit with 21 States held this year in San Francisco, California, and it remains a diplomatic victory for Biden to receive Xi Jinping in the US in this environment,” explains Germano Almeida, in statements to TSF.
The expert also points out that it is not “a simple meeting”, but “it does not reflect an approximation either.”
“What it reflects is the need that both feel to somehow manage a strategic competition and prevent it from crossing red lines,” he points out.
In preparation for the meeting, which will take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization summit, the offices of Biden and Xi promise that there will be no taboo topics to discuss, not even the most difficult ones, but that Both will reach the negotiating table with the spirit of strengthening cooperation projects.
The White House made it clear that relations between both countries are no longer at the stage in which the summits ended with a long list of announcements and agreements, representing an escalation of diplomatic tension, but assures that Biden will seek to maintain lines of communication open. try to resolve misunderstandings that could create a climate of open conflict.
Germano Almeida hopes that Joe Biden will pressure Xi Jinping to prevent Iran from entering the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
“There is a desire on the part of President Biden to want to put pressure on Xi Jinping so that China dissuades Iran from entering the war between Israel and Hamas and that seems important to me. China can do it because China is a very important client of the Iranian government. oil and if he threatened Iran to look for other types of oil sources, in addition to Tehran, if Iran contributed to the budget for the regional conflict, that would be a hypothesis,” he argues, adding that Biden has “an understanding that China also has a common interest with the US that this spread does not occur.
The American political expert does not expect that Joe Biden will be able to convince Xi Jinping to force an end to the war in Ukraine. However, Germano Almeida has no doubt that the American president will insist on this idea.
“China does not enter the war directly, it does not give weapons to Russia, at least directly. We can consider that it does so indirectly with the issue of allowing semiconductors and technology that allows the Russians to manufacture missiles, but the truth is that it does not deliver arms directly to Russia and there remains the US perspective that China could take deterrent measures towards Russia,” he adds.
“If there is any country that could do it, it would be China. I don’t expect the San Francisco meeting to result in an assurance from Xi to President Biden that Putin will stop the war, but I do expect Biden to talk again about Ukraine,” he highlights. .
Germano Almeida also believes that China understands that it is the ideal time to invade Taiwan and, therefore, hopes that the North American leader will be irreducible on this issue.
In addition to disagreements over trade, technological or territorial issues, China is also seeking assurances that the United States “does not intend to change the Chinese political system or start a new Cold War,” as the Chinese ambassador in Washington recently indicated.
Biden is expected to defend the United States’ expansion of export controls on semiconductor chips, but at the same time he will assure Xi that he is not trying to wage an economic war with Beijing.
“The United States does not wish to distance itself from China. A complete separation of our economies would be economically disastrous for both countries and the world,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng when they met last week.
For Beijing’s part, Xi will agree to address US sanctions against Chinese companies that limit access to semiconductor chips, admitting that these components are essential to China’s plans to develop companies capable of competing in the industries of the future, including electric vehicles. and artificial intelligence systems. or robotics.
The Chinese leader must also discuss with his North American counterpart Washington’s strategy to reduce trade ties between both countries, knowing that Biden maintained the punitive tariffs imposed by his predecessor, Republican Donald Trump, on goods imported from the Asian country.
On the American side, messages have been repeated that differences must be recognized, but controlled, to safeguard the interests of both countries.
“We have a trade relationship with China worth 700 billion dollars (about 600 billion euros). The vast majority – 99 percent – has nothing to do with export controls,” explained Gina Raimondo, secretary of Commerce, in a television interview over the weekend. .
Among the main disagreements between the US and China, the issue of Taiwan tops the list, and Beijing emphasizes that it claims this territory as its province, without ruling out the use of force to achieve its reunification.
Also for this reason, the US hopes to resume military communications that were interrupted after former House of Representatives leader Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last year.
At Wednesday’s meeting, Biden may want to reaffirm American support for the “one China” policy, which recognizes Beijing as China’s sole government, while warning Xi against the risks of interference in China’s presidential election. Taiwan next year.
For his part, Xi should ask Biden for additional assurances that the United States does not support formal independence for Taiwan, which functions as a sovereign political entity and will soon hold elections.
Beijing can also defend its territorial claims in the South China Sea, where the United States regularly conducts so-called “freedom of navigation” operations.
Attacks between military aircraft and warships of the two countries in the region, vital for international trade, are increasingly frequent, increasing the risk of a direct confrontation.
Without addressing two issues in which an understanding is expected, Biden must insist that he does not appeal to cooperation and does not combat climate change and fentanyl trafficking (to China there is a large source of drugs used in the production of opiates that have become a burden for White House).
The fentanyl issue represents a possible area where the two sides “can immediately work to increase mutual trust and cooperation,” Zichen Wang, a senior fellow at the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, recently admitted.
On the other hand, with less than a year left until the US presidential elections, Biden must make it clear that he will not tolerate Chinese interference in the electoral process.
Disinformation experts have warned the White House that Beijing could target the United States, sowing discord that could influence election results at the local level, especially in districts with large numbers of Chinese-American voters.
Beijing often accuses the United States of “demonizing” the Chinese regime on human rights issues, a source of long-standing tensions between the two countries.
Source: TSF
