Brazilian climatologist Carlos Nobre, who researches climate change, believes in an interview with Lusa that the Amazon is already very close to the point where it will no longer be a tropical forest, but will become a savannah.
Nobre, who is participating in five studies on the Brazilian Amazon presented at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), which takes place until the 12th in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, explained that the dry period in the Brazilian Amazon has has increased in recent decades, a clear sign that the so-called point of no return, i.e. the ‘savannization’ of the biome, is near.
“We are very close to the point of no return because the dry season in the southern Amazon is much longer. The dry season lasted three to four months. Today the dry season [com uma duração] four to five months. If it takes five to six months in twenty years, if we continue in this direction, this will already be a tropical savanna climate, a cerrado climate [bioma brasileiro]and no longer a climate [da floresta tropical] of the Amazon,” he told Lusa.
The expert cited as an example of the loss of vitality of the biome, which is fundamental to stopping global warming, the fact that in the south of the Brazilian state of Pará and in the north of the state of Mato Grosso Amazon rainforest is already a source of carbon, meaning it emits more carbon into the atmosphere than it absorbs.
“Why the dry season [na Amazónia] will it be longer? It is a complex, synergistic combination between global warming that is causing extreme phenomena to become even more extreme,” he said, mentioning El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs on average every two to seven years and is linked to rising temperatures on the surface of the central part of the country. and the eastern tropical Pacific, but which has consequences around the world.
“Why are strong ‘el Niños’ becoming more common? Global warming, warmer oceans (…) The warmer Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Atlantic Ocean north of the equator is breaking temperature records and this is causing droughts in the Amazon region. ‘El Niños are causing droughts in the Amazon,” he added.
In addition to climate change, the Brazilian scientist, who was elected last year as a foreign member of the Royal Society, a British institution that promotes scientific knowledge in the world, mentioned deforestation combined with livestock farming in northern Brazil, which has increased significantly in recent years increased. . decades.
“The pasture site is very inefficient at recycling water. The pasture does not recycle water the way the forest does during the dry season (…) The forest recycles water in a very efficient way, so that’s what happens. These are the reasons Frequent droughts such as [as que aconteceram] in 2005, in 2010, between 2015 and 2016 and [a seca recorde na Amazónia registada] now in 2023, which will run until 2024,” he pointed out.
“Previously we had a more pronounced drought in the Amazon every 20 years. Now we have four droughts in two decades, that is three to four times more often. […] and this, together with deforestation, puts the Amazon region in grave danger [de chegar] to the point where there is no turning back,” he concluded.
Nobre’s assessment is consistent with data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the group of scientists set up by the United Nations to monitor and advise all global science related to climate change, of which he was a member. that the ‘savannization’ of the Amazon is already an ongoing phenomenon.
The Amazon is the largest tropical forest in the world and has the greatest biodiversity in any part of the planet, covering approximately 5.5 million square kilometers and encompassing areas in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Guyana, Suriname and French -Guyana (belonging to France).
Source: DN
