The year 2023 appeared to be the year of de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with an unprecedented reconciliation deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, signed in March with China’s mediation, and US-backed negotiations so that the Saudi -Arabia could be the next to normalize relations with Israel. The wars in Syria and Yemen were at a stalemate, opening the door to dialogue, with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad being called back onto the international stage after years of isolation.
But everything changed on October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel by surprise, killing 1,139 people (including 695 Israeli civilians, 36 of whom were children, and 71 foreigners) and taking more than 200 hostages to the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli estimates.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government responded by attacking the Palestinian enclave, with bombings and a land invasion (not until October 27). Apart from a seven-day humanitarian pause that allowed the release of more than a hundred hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the daily attacks have already killed more than 20,000 people and forced millions to flee, according to Hamas-controlled Gaza authorities. flee their home to the south, where they are not safe from bombings, hunger and disease.
Although the fighting is concentrated in the Palestinian enclave, Hezbollah and Red Sea violence is also reaching the occupied West Bank and southern Lebanon, thanks to Yemen’s Houthi rebels’ drones and missiles, endangering commercial shipping. and forced the US to create an international force to try to ensure the safety of ships passing through one of the world’s most important maritime routes. In practice, it is the Iranian Resistance Axis groups that keep the region in turmoil.
The year 2023 ends with the war far from over; Israel warns that this could take months. Netanyahu emphasizes the three main objectives of the Gaza operation: to defeat the Palestinian terror group Hamas, free the hostages and ensure that a new security system is established in the enclave and that Israel will not be attacked again. In terms of defeating Hamas, the Israeli forces have not yet succeeded in neutralizing those they have presented as their main targets, namely the leader of the terrorist group in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and the leader of its military wing, the Izzedine al-Brigades. Qassam, Mohammed Deif. In addition, Hamas receives support in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
As for the hostages, the humanitarian pause has allowed the release of 100 people, but 100 people are still waiting for a new agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is being negotiated but is far from finalized. Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to feel pressure from the hostages’ families, who are demanding he do more to secure their release, especially after the shock that the Israeli army accidentally killed three of them – mistaking them for suspected terrorists, despite bare-chested and improvised a white flag.
Finally, the new security system in Gaza and the future of the territory – where humanitarian aid is coming in at a trickle, far below the needs of the two million displaced people, as the United Nations continues to warn. Netanyahu insists that the enclave will no longer be a “Hamastan,” but also not a “Fatahstan,” referring to Fatah, the party of Palestinian Authority leader Mahmud Abbas, whose popularity has waned in the occupied West Bank. It is not clear what role the Palestinian Authority will play in Gaza even if it is reformed, and even the idea of a two-state solution is not accepted by the Israeli government – the most right-wing ever.
“If the war ends with a new Israeli occupation of Gaza and accelerated settlement expansion in the West Bank, the momentum for greater normalization with Israel will slow and Arab public opinion will solidify against it; at the same time, the US will face headwinds in its regional relations. Iran and its allies, as well as radical Sunni extremist groups, will benefit from this polarization and gain more followers and influence,” wrote Paul Salem, president and CEO of the Middle East Institute. “On the other hand, if the war is followed by a “A robust peace effort, led by the US, but with the involvement of key global and regional players, could move the region in a much more positive direction, leaving the radicals and spoilsports on the sidelines.” , he added.
Main characters
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister
After more than fifteen years in power in Israel (in two different periods), Benjamin Netanyahu returned to lead the government in 2022, leading an executive branch more to the right than ever. The judicial reform he implemented, even as he himself faces justice, sparked weeks of unprecedented protests. The terrorist attack on October 7 silenced these demonstrations, but not the protest. After all, a government so focused on security was unable to stop Hamas and now appears to be ignoring calls for a ceasefire that would open the door to the release of the hostages. The question is whether it will survive 2024 politically.
Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas
He was the face of the terrorist group’s diplomacy during the Gaza war, traveling to Egypt for hostage negotiations or receiving envoys from Iran. The political leader of Hamas emphasizes the resilience of the Palestinian people and emphasizes that they are prepared for a long war. But he is not in Gaza – Ismail Haniyeh has lived in Qatar for years – unlike others on Israel’s hit list: the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and the leader of its military wing, the Izzedine al-Brigades. Deif. The attack on the 7th sparked the war, but Hamas is gaining support in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.
Mahmud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority
The leader of the Palestinian Authority, responsible for the occupied West Bank, has been challenged for years over the lack of elections in the area and security collusion with Israel as the country continues to build settlements in the region. In light of the war, Mahmud Abbas insists on denouncing the violence and talking about the two-state solution. After all, he was one of the architects of the Oslo Accords, which laid the foundation for this. Even if the Palestinian Authority has a say in Gaza’s post-war future, that does not mean that Abbas is one of the interlocutors.
Source: DN
