It’s called the “Rasputitsaand belligerents have feared it for weeks. Literally, this Russian term designates the “season of bad roads”, that is, the bad weather that, from autumn to the melting of the snow in spring, turns axes into torrents of mud. , pierced by potholes, bad weather that hinders the movement of troops and further complicates the living conditions of soldiers.
As the end of October approaches, the bad season is already on the front, but the threat does not come from rain or sleet. Difficult on the ground, Vladimir Putin’s Russia decided to give his opponent a cold snap. Pounding power plants since the beginning of the month, the Russian military has deprived much of Ukraine of electricity and sometimes water.
The Zaporizhia case
To do this, the invader attacks two types of installations. First of all, he regularly shuts down those over whom he managed to impose his control. Thus, in the space of ten days, the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant was disconnected three times, the last of which ended on Tuesday night, after 18 hours of absence of electricity.
The event is alarming insofar as the infrastructure must absolutely be supplied with electricity to guarantee its atomic safety. Furthermore, these repeated failures of the Zaporizhia complex are all the more damaging since it is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.
30% of Ukraine’s power plants destroyed
But it is above all the Russian-led attacks on Ukrainian sites that are worrying. Air strikes, kamikaze drones: for ten days, the Kremlin has increased its attacks to bring down the opposing energy system. With some efficiency: on Tuesday, the Ukrainian authorities estimated at 1,162 the number of towns still deprived of electricity and, more specifically, of water. A figure that even amounts to 4,000 municipalities considering the strikes carried out since October 7.
On Twitter that same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered an even more terrifying statistic. “Since October 10, 30% of Ukrainian power plants have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country,” the head of state said.
And these shortcomings do not only affect small and medium-sized towns. The capital, Kyiv, Lviv (720,000 inhabitants before the war) was without electricity for hours. A Kharkiv resident quoted here by The world he even accused Vladimir Putin of “wanting to make (Ukrainians) freeze to death in the dark.”
Russia vindicates its strategy
The official statement from Moscow is not far from justifying this cry of despair. Russia has no problem assuming its energy offensive.
“The Russian armed forces continued to strike with high-precision and long-range air and sea weapons against Ukraine’s military command and energy systems,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a report dated Tuesday, celebrating that “all targets have “been reached”. “.
“War crimes” for international diplomacy
The words are not the same when talking about these international strikes. This Wednesday on franceinfo, Anne-Claire Legendre, spokesperson for the Quai d’Orsay, noted for the first time:
“For two weeks, Russia has changed its tactics on the ground, given the setbacks it is encountering, it is now attacking civilian targets, targeting civilians themselves, but also strategic energy infrastructure.”
He then denounced “war crimes,” adding: “The idea is to exhaust by terror, by cold, to break the morale of the Ukrainian population that supports the strategy of resistance to aggression against President Zelensky.”
Ukraine is preparing
But it will take more than anathemas for Ukrainians to get through the fall and winter. The government also has accents of Winston Churchill, who had requested “blood and tears” from his fellow citizens during World War II, to succeed in this new test. “It is necessary for the whole country to prepare for the possibility of electricity, water and heating cuts,” Kyrylo Tymoshenko, spokesman for the Ukrainian presidency, proclaimed on television on Tuesday.
As part of this “preparation”, the Ukrainian government is already establishing measures to deal with this war of volts. Thus, as listed here by the correspondent for The cross in Kyiv: the Ukrainian government has already announced the suspension of its own electricity exports, decreed the sporadic limitation of access to the network to avoid overload phenomena, and above all the Ukrenergo agency has asked its nationals to restrict their consumption due to the night.
The same winter military culture
The opening period poses another danger hanging over Ukrainian heads. More directly military this one. Since 1812, and Napoleon’s defeat at the end of the Russian campaign by the Nazis trapped in the ice of Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad before being expelled during World War II, Russian armies have shown that they knew how to make winter their specialty. .
“Yes, but the Russians and the Ukrainians have the same winter culture,” says General Jérôme Pellistrandi, defense consultant for BFMTV.
The officer points out, however, that after the expected slowdown in operations this fall, a fateful “window” will present itself for both sides:
“In January-February, with the snow and the frozen ground, we will be able to go to war because there will be no problem for the armor maneuvers, even if the engines may have difficulty starting if it is too cold.”
Offensives and counter-offensives can then be resumed “as long as you have the right equipment”, continues General Pellistrandi before continuing: “But the Russians lack it”.
In any case, however, it is less the material than the spiritual conditions that will matter. “What will come into play are the moral forces, the ability to support the war effort despite the suffering and the harsh winter”, concludes Jérôme Pellistrandi.
Therefore, it is an additional battle that the attacked population is now called upon to lead. But as its troops push south toward the occupied city of Kherson, which Russia begins evacuating on Wednesday, it can tell itself it has already won others. And just as scary.
Source: BFM TV
