Potentially disastrous consequences. Volodymyr Zelensky claims that Russia has mined the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine’s Kherson region, recently annexed by Moscow forces and now the target of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
According to Kyiv, an explosion now threatens this highly strategic place. The damage would be enormous for the population of the region, while the Russian forces increase their pressure in the south of the country.
A “full-scale disaster” for Zelensky
The battle for Kherson continues and one place currently concentrates the concerns of the Ukrainian side: the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station. Volodymyr Zelensky was the first to launch the alert last Thursday.
“According to our information, the aggregates and the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station were mined by Russian terrorists,” he said in a video posted on social media.
Alarmist, the Ukrainian president is concerned about a possible “large-scale disaster”. “In case the dam is destroyed … the North Crimean Canal will simply disappear,” he said.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Chmygal called on “the UN, the EU and other organizations to organize an international observation mission from Kakhovka” and bring experts to the scene “immediately”.
a massive flood
What are the specific risks in case of destruction of the dam? First a flood of the region, while thousands of people live along the Dnieper. In fact, the structure, located on the river, has the function of a reservoir and allows, in particular, to supply Crimea with water.
If the dam bursts, “more than 80 localities, including Kherson, will be in the flash flood zone,” proclaims Volodymyr Zelensky.
We would observe a kind of “mini-tsunami that would submerge the banks of the Dnieper for several days”, the director of strategic studies for Eurocrise Isabelle Dufour abounds this Friday in the columns of the Parisian. “Part of the city of Kherson would be under water”, advances even Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst for Central and Eastern Europe, interviewed by the newspaper.
A key infrastructure
The Ukrainian president said that the explosion “destroyed the appropriation in the water of a large part of the Ukraine”, alors that the reservoir had a retention of artificial water forme for a distance of 240 km and just 23 km Wide.
The attack could also affect the cooling of the reactors at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. In fact, the plant draws its water from this artificial lake of 18 million cubic meters.
In recent weeks, Russia has focused on numerous energy infrastructures, including nuclear power plants and electrical installations. By targeting a hydroelectric plant, one of the largest infrastructures of its kind in the country, Russia would confirm this change in strategy.
A military objective not without risk
What interest for Russia? One of the advisers to the Ukrainian presidency, Mykhailo Podolyak, considers that the Russians hope, with this attack, to “stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive” and protect their army.
The expert Isabelle Dufour confirms that this attack would offer the Moscow forces the possibility of “carrying out an orderly withdrawal from Kherson”, although it would also make their maneuvers more difficult.
Olivier Védrine, a political scientist and editor of the Russian opposition newspaper Russian Monitor, is cautious on the subject. He recalls on the set of BFMTV that the dam is a water reservoir for Crimea, a Ukrainian province annexed by Russia in 2014.
Therefore, there would be much to lose for the Russians, who see this threat of explosion as very hypothetical.
“It is a possibility, but it would be a bit suicidal if Putin left Crimea,” he said.
Russia denies
The Russian occupation authorities in Kherson, for their part, deny having exploited the Kakhovka dam and denounce “lies” by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A report by the Institute for the Study of War, published this week, estimates that Russia is likely to “prepare a false flag operation” against the Kakhovka dam. Specifically, the Russians would blow up the dam, after withdrawing from Kherson, before accusing Ukraine of this attack.
The Russian administration of the Kherson region assures that 15,000 people have already been evacuated from the territory. She says that she plans to move “50,000 to 60,000” in a few days to the other side of the Dnieper.
Source: BFM TV
