Well-oiled communication strategy, show of force, admission of failure, or all three at the same time? This Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin supervised the training of his Russian strategic deterrence forces, troops in charge of responding to the threat in the event of nuclear war.
Russian television showed the crew of a submarine preparing to launch a missile from the Barents Sea in the Arctic. The exercise also involved long-range Tu-95 aircraft. In parallel, the strong man of the Kremlin was filmed on several occasions, observing and commanding the various maneuvers.
“The Russian armed forces, and in particular those of strategic nuclear deterrence, are prepared to face and respond to a nuclear attack carried out by one of our rivals and this, in accordance with the plan of the Russian Federation”, he concluded, in the final of the exercise, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
classic russian propaganda
A staging that surprises. The day before these exercises, Washington had notified that the United States had been warned of these shots by Moscow, and that they were respecting the commitments assumed by the Kremlin within the framework of the defense agreements. In fact, what is the use of mediating to such an extent what is defined as a simple “routine” exercise?
“It is one more element in a communication campaign. A few days ago we saw Putin presiding over a defense council, in France it is never filmed, there it is filmed in the middle of a war. It is the “opportunity to show the leader holding the helm, taking problems head-on. It is the opportunity to show that he is the boss, who has these weapons, ”explains Michel Goya, BFMTV defense consultant, on our antenna.
Still on our airwaves, Thierry Arnaud, an international political columnist, also insists on Russia’s willingness to broadcast this sequence and make it an integral part of its propaganda.
“The exercise is classic, it shows that the nuclear arsenal is working, all this happens once a year. What is not is the show, which shows that Russia is still a great nuclear and military power. This is the only card left in the Russian game to show that it can scare the rest of the world,” he insists.
This moment, according to Lova Rinel, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, is also a pretext for Vladimir Putin to reassure his population while the management of the Russian army is increasingly questioned. “You can tell there are dysfunctions, but ‘I’m still the head of a functioning army,’” she says.
Admission of weakness and message sent
Another reading of this new release from Vladimir Putin is also possible. Guest on our noon antenna, Cédric Mas, military historian and president of the Action Resilience Institute, talks about “a false bluff” and a power “more visible to anyone”.
“Montrer sa puissance, soit c’est parce qu’on a pas envie de l’employer, soit c’est parce qu’elle n’est plus visible sur le terrain. Aujourd’hui, j’ai plutôt tendance à pencher sur la deuxième hypothèse. Si ses armées étaient en capacité de gagner, victorieuses sur le terrain, ce qui n’est pas du tout le cas aujourd’hui, il n’aurait pas besoin de faire ce type de gesticulations”, analyze-t- The.
For several weeks, Russia has also been trying to reverse the narrative of this war, accusing the Ukrainian government of possible aggression and thus exhausting the resistance of Kyiv and its supporters. Last weekend, the Russian authorities had thus warned of the possible use of a “dirty bomb” by Kyiv, which is not based on any military reality.
“We are on an information offensive. I remind you that since this summer we have in pro-Russian propaganda the fact that we Europeans will not survive the winter. For a few weeks we have been witnessing a precipitation that borders on panic. on the Russian side, precisely to do the maximum so that before winter we withdraw our support for Ukraine. This is a message for the West”, adds Cédric Mas.
In conclusion, Lova Rinel assures, this sequence does not translate into “an increase in nuclear alert.”
“Deterrence is music that is repeated in times of war and peace, and it is when it stops that we have to worry. He had no choice but to continue with this exercise that we were waiting for, ”he concludes.
Source: BFM TV
