the New York Times revealed on Wednesday that Russian generals had raised the possibility of a tactical nuclear attack on Ukraine and discussed its nature and timing in mid-October. The US newspaper relied on sources within US intelligence to release this information, stating that neither Vladimir Putin nor his defense minister had taken part in these exchanges.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the threats, veiled or not, of the use of atomic weapons have been legion of Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly recalled that the use of the atom was an option on the table if the vital interests of the Russian nation would be threatened. In early October, in the context of a private meeting, Joe Biden had estimated that humanity had never been so close to a nuclear apocalypse since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
“Always take threats seriously”
The revelations of New York Times they come for the first time to confirm that the strategic details of such an attack have been discussed in high places. Asked about the issue, John Kirby, spokesman for the US National Security Council, said:
“We take this information very seriously. We have been monitoring this as closely as possible from the beginning and always do.”
A point of view shared by Claude Blanchemaison, French ambassador to Moscow from 2000 to 20004. “We must always take the thinly veiled threats of the adversary seriously. So we understand very well that the Americans take this threat seriously,” he said in BFMTV.
Especially since according to General Jérôme Pellistrandi, defense consultant for BFMTV, the use of atomic weapons is a more commonly accepted idea in Russia than in France: “In Russian doctrine, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is more commonly tactical, while that in France, there is a very clear separation. We are in dissuasion, in unemployment”.
difficulties on the ground
For him New York Times, the conversation attests to the level of concern Russian officials have gained, while setbacks mount on the ground for Moscow. Since late summer, Kyiv has been leading a successful counteroffensive in the east of the country and has managed to retake several locations. The city of Kherson, captured by Russia at the beginning of the invasion, was even evacuated by Moscow in the face of advancing Kyiv forces.
A situation that can explain the discussion of the Russian generals. “There is an internal problem for the Russian forces, which are in a tactical impasse. It is normal for the Russian generals to try to find a solution,” General Jérôme Pellistrandi said on Thursday.
For Héloïse Fayet, a researcher at the IFRI Center for Security Studies, the revelations of the New York Times they actually reflect a situation that was foreseeable.
“It is quite normal for generals to plan, to consider various sorties, which are not reported to the Defense Ministry and President Putin. We are still in the planning, which we hope will be done in other countries as well,” the researcher said. .
“In Case of Extreme Last Resort”
France does not possess tactical nuclear weapons, only strategic ones. Paris continues to base its nuclear strategy on that outlined by General De Gaulle, believing that the use of the atom in a conflict, regardless of the size of the bomb, constituted a point of no return.
As a reminder, a tactical nuclear weapon has a restricted range, less than 500 km, and its power is limited. However, today’s tactical nuclear weapons would have the same power as the one dropped in 1945 on Hiroshima. Or consequences that would be terrible in all cases and that invite caution in the interpretation of the supposed wishes of Vladimir Putin.
“The Russians would only use it in case of an extreme last resort, like the day Putin would be in a situation where he should maybe capitulate. We are very far from that, so the hypothesis evoked is not a current hypothesis. declared Claude Blanchemaison on our set.
An analysis shared by General Jérôme Pellistrandi: “We have entered a war that will last a long time. Putin knows that he has resources, Russian history shows that the country has strategic depth. It is experiencing very great difficulties for its defense industry, but it fits in the long term with the idea that the West, if faced with a difficult winter, could no longer support Ukraine.
A flight serving US interests?
Another element that allows to put the situation in perspective: the elements on which the article of the New York Times. CNN reported that the conversation between the Russian generals was not recorded and transmitted to US intelligence as is, but that the latter was based on various pieces of raw intelligence, which analyzed together led to the discovery of this discussion.
The escape that allowed the New York Times Revealing the existence of this discussion is also not insignificant on the American side. At least that’s what Claude Blanchemaison said on our set.
“We are a few days away from the midterms (the midterm elections in the United States, editor’s note). It’s probably not entirely insignificant that the leak happened at that time. It is in case, unfortunately, the Republicans moderate. the aid provided to Ukraine, shows that this is not the time, “said the former ambassador.
Source: BFM TV
