Who do the French want to win in the duel between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris? The answer is clear, according to a survey by Elabe for BFMTV published this Wednesday, October 30: the French vote with an overwhelming majority in favor of the Democratic candidate.
64% of French people expect his victory on November 5, compared to just 13% for former president and billionaire Donald Trump. However, the proportion of respondents without an opinion is significant, 23%.
“Kamala Harris’ victory is widely desired by voters (in the first round of the 2024 legislative elections) of Ensemble (90%), NFP (85%) and LR/UDI/DVD (72%),” writes the Elabe Electoral Institute.
More surprising? A “relative majority” of National Group voters are also in favor of Vice President Joe Biden’s victory. 46% of leading party voters support him, while 30% would prefer a victory for Donald Trump.
A “sincere” and “competent” candidate, a “disturbing and authoritarian” opponent
Questioned by Elabe, the French shared the image they have of the two candidates. Kamala Harris enjoys a “good image” among 63% of respondents, while 73% of them have a “bad image” of Donald Trump, including 60% who have a “very bad image” of the former president.
Various adjectives have been attributed to the two opponents. Once again, Donald Trump does not receive good words from the French. He is mainly described as “arrogant, brooding, and overbearing.” While her Democratic rival is seen as “more sincere, competent and brave than her opponent.”
Character traits that are reflected in the expectations that the French have about relations between Paris and Washington after November 5. In equal proportion, they believe that Kamala Harris’ victory could be “a good thing” for Franco-American relations, while Donald Trump’s would be “a bad thing”: each with 66%.
A vote with a result “uncertain in the eyes of the French”
Regardless of whether they want the victory of one candidate or another, the French are above all aware of the unpredictability of these elections. With less than a week to go before the vote, the result is “uncertain in the eyes of the French,” who predict the victory of one candidate or another, or have no opinion on a third party each.
This is an unpredictability that corresponds well with the reality of surveys on the other side of the Atlantic. According to the specialized site Fivethirtyeight, which aggregates the main surveys, the national gap between the two rivals is very small. At the national level, the Democrat enjoys 48.1% of voting intentions and the Republican 46.7%, which however does not take into account the specificity of voting by electoral system.
Elabe survey for BFMTV carried out with a sample of 1,007 people representative of residents in mainland France over 18 years of age. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age and profession of the interviewee after stratification by region and agglomeration category. Online survey from October 29 to 30, 2024.
Source: BFM TV