Will Kherson remain in the hands of Russian forces? After more than eight months of war, all eyes are on this southern Ukrainian city, the last major city held by the Russians. In recent days, the signals sent by the Moscow forces – evacuations of the population and part of the administration, speeches by officials – could herald a withdrawal.
On Friday, the deputy head of the Russian occupation authority in Kherson, Kirill Stremoussov, even announced that a curfew would be put in place in the city before backing down a few minutes later, saying “there are no ‘there were no restrictions. “. for residents of Kherson, despite the Ukrainian push in the area.
• Towards a Battle of Kherson?
If the Russians have evacuated some 140,000 people, their intentions remain unclear. “There are many uncertainties. On the one hand, the Russians are evacuating the civilian population, part of the pro-Russian administration has left the city.
On the other hand, we have the Ukrainian forces that are advancing along the right bank of the Dnieper with the aim of retaking it and as a final objective the city of Kherson”, analyzes General Jérôme Pellistrandi, defense consultant at BFMTV.
On Friday, Vladimir Putin himself said that civilians in Kherson “must stay away” from the “most dangerous” combat zones, which could indicate an impending battle. “Civilians are withdrawn from Kherson. If [Vladimir Poutine] withdraw civilians, it is to hit, that is the real battle of Kherson”, explains Claude Blanchemaison, former French ambassador to Russia.
The Civilian Question
A battle, or siege, that would favor Russian forces as winter approaches. “Vladimir Putin’s likely idea is to hold the Kherson siege to wear down the Ukrainian forces and buy time. Vladimir Putin has made a long-term commitment to this conflict,” recalls General Pellistrandi.
For Ukrainian forces, approaching the city, bombing Kherson or engaging in street fighting is a real “tactical dilemma” in this Ukrainian city, with a Ukrainian population.
Especially since the balance of power would be on the side of the Russian forces. “On offense you have to have a ratio of six against one. So, if we put 10,000 Russian soldiers in Kherson, we need 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers”, General Jérôme Pellistrandi detailed this Friday on our antenna.
Taken by the Russians at the beginning of the war, Kherson and its region are “the key to Crimea, to Odessa”, recalls Claude Blanchemaison. Retaking the city could pave the way for Ukraine to reach the commercially vital Sea of Azov and threaten Moscow’s stranglehold on Crimea. For Russia, it would be a “very humiliating defeat” for Moscow and Vladimir Putin.
Source: BFM TV
