The appointment will be able to return at regular intervals, its -giant- menu, and its -dantesque- scale make it a unique electoral event in the world. And this 2022 edition, between the extreme political polarization and the uncertainty of the result, is especially captivating. Thus, this Tuesday will take place the partial examsor intermediate elections.
What is at stake in these polls is very numerous: in addition to deciding within the local referendums that are submitted to them, the Americans appoint the secretaries of 27 states and the governors of 36 of them. Above all, they are called to renew their Congress.
In detail, they vote for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate. If it is not played beforehand, things are clear. Democrats are expected to lose their 221-member majority to the 212 Republicans in the House. But the Senate – where 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats or assimilated, to whom Vice President Kamala Harris provides a decisive advantage in the event of a tie, look at each other like mud dogs – looks like another pair of sleeves. And four states are on everyone’s radar: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio and Arizona.
Polls in a pocket square, personalities of the candidates, issues addressed, symbols raised… these regions are to be observed like milk on a fire. BFMTV.com takes stock on the eve of the battle.
• Pennsylvania: quite a symbol
Pennsylvania is possibly the most media-focused fight. Joe Biden’s homeland – which continues to increase his trips there – is intimately linked to the current mandate. Perhaps for this reason, in recent days Pennsylvania has been the scene of an unprecedented parade of presidents.
In addition to Joe Biden, therefore, we saw Barack Obama, in particular for a prominent speech in Philadelphia, but also Donald Trump. Like a new version of the last presidential duel at the end of which Joe Biden had beaten the billionaire by a very short head -50.01% of the votes cast-.
As for what is at stake in the election itself, here it is necessary to separate the race for the governor’s office from the race for senatorial seats. In the first case, the mass seems to be happy: with 51.8% of the projections (according to the FiveThirtyEight site that weighs the most recent polls) compared to 40.9% of his opponent, the Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro seems calm compared to to his opponent. Republican, Doug Mastriano.
The second is much more spectacular. Almost tragic. Democrats are trying to send John Fetterman to the Senate. However, the man has just been the victim of a seizure, which has weakened him and affected his speech. To the point that it was difficult to see him during the debate that put him in the presence of his Republican opponent, the very famous (for his frequent television appearances) Doctor Mehmet Oz.
At the moment, John Fetterman’s health problems and elocution difficulties are not prohibitive in the eyes of voters: he has a 46.8% chance against 46.4% for the opposite side. Two months ago – as FiveThirtyEight’s curves show – however, he was leading Mehmet Oz by about ten points.
• Georgia, on everyone’s mind
As of this weekend, Georgia is on everyone’s mind. In fact, the State is distinguished by an extremely strong turnout during the early voting, organized from November 3 to 5. 2,504,956 voters have already swiped their ballot according to official figures, a record for partial examsand not far from the level of the last presidential elections (2.6 million early votes) that had also crowned Joe Biden by a hair, with a final percentage of 49.47%.
Apart from this opulence, the fight for the office of governor is presented in the same terms as in Pennsylvania, but with the colors reversed. This time, “red” (GOP color) incumbent Brian Kemp and 51.6% of her outnumber “blue” Democrat Stacey Abrams, staggering with 44%. Her campaign is further hampered by an internal war within her own in-laws, described here by the New York Times.
On the side of the Senate, the confrontation is more tense. He faces the Democratic incumbent, Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker. The latter is a former American footballer, who is still in the news. What The team he explained, he was constantly caught in the act of lying, about his career, his studies, and his private life.
This great detractor of abortion is also accused of having paid two young people to interrupt their pregnancy. It is also from this angle that Raphael Warnock attacks it, as pointed out here by the Washington Post. At a meeting last Tuesday, he thus portrayed Herschel Walker as a “pathological liar”, mocking: “And now he wants to be thought somehow fit to be a United States senator.” But public opinion is less ruthless. With 46.6% of intentions compared to 46.5% in the outgoing, it is precisely Herschel Walker who is moving towards the upper house at the moment.
• Ohio: Vance leader
Ohio asserts its uniqueness among this gang of four. This state, which historically focuses the eyes of Americans on election night, leaned in favor of Donald Trump in 2020, giving him 53.27% of the valid votes. And that favor can be read today in the gap that separates the outgoing Republican Governor, Mike DeWine, from his Democratic rival, Nan Whaley, Mayor of Dayton. A gap or a gap: 56.3% vs. 36%, again according to FiveThirtyEight.
Once again, the campaign for the Senate is more incomplete. He is pitting Rep. Tim Ryan, for the Democrats, against businessman JD Vance. The latter has built an immense notoriety in the United States thanks to his memoir, fancy redneckthat the public did a best sellerand Netflix a movie.
In addition, the political conversion of JD Vance has drawn attention. Previously known for his harsh criticism of Donald Trump, who was defined as “a conservative maverick” according to ABC, he began to sing the praises of the needs of the cause. Going so far as to pick up the chorus of a “stolen” presidential election on the set of Fox News. The irony of the situation was not lost on the director in question. As CNN noted here, Donald Trump dropped in the middle of a meeting in mid-September: “JD is licking butt, he needs my support so bad.”
You have to believe that the process pays. According to a study conducted by Emerson University, and cited by The hillJD Vance points to 51% of the intentions compared to 49% of Tim Ryan.
• The Trump clan dreams of making Arizona their rear base
It is true that Arizona has consecrated Joe Biden (with a relative majority of 49.36% of the registered votes) in 2020, but the Trump clan dreams of making him their rear during these partial exams. As the Swiss RTS pointed out, the Republican Party has only invested candidates there “denarii“”, that is to say, convinced -at least in public- that his champion owed his defeat only to a scandalous electoral fraud. The argument does not seem to be enough to fix the cans of his suitor in the Senate, however: Blake Masters is defeated by 46.3% of the projections against the 48.3% delegated to Democrat Mark Kelly.
But it doesn’t matter, because it’s the Republican gubernatorial candidate’s thunderous personality that catches the light. Kari Lake is a former journalist and local TV presenter. And if she supported Barack Obama during his first stay in the White House, she has changed a lot since then. She strings together outrageous statements, listed here by The cross – like so many promises of his good faith to the most right-wing wing of his host political family.
First of all, he refuses to confirm that he will respect a possible unfavorable outcome. “I will win the elections, this is the result that I will accept,” he said, according to the translation of The cross. In addition, he vindicates the Trump legacy even in his desire to complete the famous anti-immigrant wall in Arizona. She still makes abortion the “ultimate sin” and lends Joe Biden “a demonic agenda.”
Eager to please the conservative electorate, he is less so to please the media scene. According to statements reported here by the New York Times, wants to be “the worst nightmare” of the press, the former journalist even lashes out at the reporters whom she describes as “monsters”. She was very mobilized against the use of the mask and vaccination, she pushed the cork to demand the arrest of Anthony Fauci, the emblematic doctor of the anti-Covid 19 campaign: she leads from 48.9% of the estimates to 46.4 %. dedicated to her Democratic challenger Katie Hobbs according to FiveThirtyEight.
Source: BFM TV
