A turning point in history and the end of a bloody undivided dictatorship. 24 years after coming to power, Bashar al-Assad and his family were forced into exile in the face of the advance and spectacular offensive of the radical Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)particularly from the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda.
Aleppo, Hama, Homs… Since the end of November, the latter quickly took over several cities in the country before entering the capital, Damascus, on Sunday.
“The whole world was surprised”
This overthrow of the regime represents a defeat for Vladimir Putin, since the Kremlin has shown itself incapable of defending its Syrian ally, despite the dozens of attacks recorded in various parts of Syria conquered by the rebels in recent days.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov on Monday refused to confirm the presence of the Syrian dictator on its territory. “The whole world was surprised by what happened (…) We are not the exception,” he also added.
However, the Syrian theater had been an opportunity for Moscow, between 2011 and 2015, to shine again on an international scale and regain its stature.
“The support that Russia had given, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, to the Syrian regime in 2015 to fight Daesh had marked its return to the international scene, a kind of desire for power on the part of Russia that it was beginning to express at that time. “explains Jean-Didier Revoin, BFMTV correspondent in Moscow.
“The Russians capitulated in the open field”
However, this support gradually withered, becoming almost non-existent, as Islamist rebels rapidly advanced across Syria. A resignation that conveys an image of great weakness on the part of the Russian regime and its military force. “As far as Russia is concerned, we are facing something truly ridiculous,” Frédéric Encel, a geopolitical scientist specializing in the Middle East, confirms to BFMTV.
“Here is this great power that is clearly incapable of leading a simple expedition on a secondary front against peoples that today are not Bonaparte’s great army in 1810. The Russians capitulated in the open field,” he added.
For him, this Russian weakening is not so recent, and coincides precisely with the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict. “It has been two and a half years since the Russian tanks failed against kyiv. Since then, we have never stopped seeing signs of weakness in this army that just three years ago was considered the second or third in the world,” he adds.
kyiv, through its head of diplomacy Andriï Sybiga, also took advantage of this situation to criticize Russia, underlining that “the events in Syria demonstrate the weakness of Putin’s regime, which is incapable of fighting on two fronts and abandons its strongest allies. close for the benefit of their aggression against Ukraine.
Does Moscow no longer have the means to achieve its ambitions?
On an international scale, the inability of Vladimir Putin and Russia to defend Bashar al-Assad’s regime obviously does not send a positive message. Worse still, Moscow appears to be gradually losing weight at the international negotiating table.
“The question now posed to Vladimir Putin is that, as we see that Moscow is not able to support and help its Syrian ally, what will happen to other important partnerships that Russia is trying to conclude, particularly in Africa and other regions “What is now being questioned in the world is the credibility of Russian support,” says Jean-Didier Revoin.
Indeed, for several years Russia has been trying to establish itself permanently on the African continent, in particular through the Wagner force, which has been progressively intervening in local political life, including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. However, the image given by Vladimir Putin in recent days could make some African leaders rethink collaboration with Russia, which is visibly reluctant to defend its allies and only seems to create alliances out of pure opportunism.
Putin’s duplicity was expressed once again when he openly capitulated to his Armenian allies in 2020 when they were attacked by Azerbaijan, Vladimir Putin never really supported Bashar al-Assad after 2016, and finally Putin is close to Iran because Iran is capable of providing him with what he does not even have, that is, suicide drones that will be used on the Ukrainian front,” says Frédéric Encel.
Strategic points that will soon be lost?
This decline in Russian influence in the region could also be illustrated by the loss of the two bases it has in the country, the Tartous naval base, which dates back to the Soviet Union, and this Latakia air base, created after its intervention in 2015.
“It is a snub for Putin, who had two bases in the warm sea, one naval and the other air, which allowed him to project himself into Africa from the Syrian coast,” says Antoine Basbous, political scientist and director of the Arab Countries Observatory. .
As RFI specifies, these two bases are important military assets for the Kremlin and are “essential supply points for Russian military operations in Libya, the Sahel and the Central African Republic.”
“Russian military bases on the territory of Syria are on alert. At the moment there is no serious threat to their security,” the Russian Foreign Ministry tried to reassure. “Russia is in contact with all Syrian opposition groups,” says the same source.
Ten other, much more modest, Russian bases are installed throughout the country, including Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor. There is little information available about his current situation.
Source: BFM TV
