“I’ve run twice. I’ve won twice,” former President Donald Trump said in Iowa during one of the last rallies before the midterm elections. “Now, to make our country successful, safe and glorious, I will very, very, very likely do it again.”
Trump’s comments echoed in Sioux City as his inner circle was discussing the date of the re-election announcement, which is expected to be Nov. 14, a week after the midterm elections. Then Trump already knows whether the Republicans will lead one, two or no chambers of Congress again. This will shape the tone of the Trump campaign and the final two years of Joe Biden’s tenure. If Democrats have a miracle in store and retain control of Congress, Biden could continue to negotiate legislative packages to advance his agenda, showing work has been done towards a possible reelection.
If Republicans seize power, they can effectively limit Biden’s action and turn the second part of his term into an endless series of blockades, turning Washington, DC into a forum where much is said and nothing is done. They could also suspend or reduce sending financial and military aid to Ukraine, something Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy has already suggested.
Portuguese-American political scientist Daniela Melo, professor at Boston University, points to the high bar of these elections. “I can’t remember there being so much interest in interims over the past 20 years,” he said. “The prospects for this election seem to me to be even more complex than in 2018.”
That was the year the Democrats, united against the Trump administration, approved the House election and won 40 seats, giving them a majority. However, they failed to win back the Senate, whose tenure lasts for six years (and not two like in the House) and as such doesn’t all go to the vote at the same time. The Senate change did not take place until 2021, after the Georgia special election, which gave Democrats the same number of senators as Republicans, 50-50. Since Vice President Kamala Harris is a Democrat and has the casting vote, Biden’s party gained control of Congress.
This scrutiny was essential to the Biden administration’s legislative victories, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which included key measures in climate and health price negotiations, the CHIPS Act, to encourage domestic semiconductor production, and the PACT Act. , to help war veterans who contract illness on mission. This Congress also passed the first bipartisan gun law in thirty years. And thanks to Senate control, Biden was able to send the first African-American judge, Ketanji Brown Jackson, to the Supreme Court, among several other nominations.
Now the path that Biden’s White House has taken could be abruptly halted, leaving the president with nothing but veto power and executive orders.
The possible scenarios
After months of Democrats taking the polls by surprise, Republicans returned to the favored state to win both chambers, according to tradition — the opposition always wins seats against the president’s party in midterm elections. According to the predictive model of the survey aggregator platform FiveThirtyEight, the probability that the Republicans will win the entire congress is 54 out of 100🇧🇷 In the race for the House of Representatives, the odds of the Republicans are extremely high, 83 out of 100. In the Senate race the scores are tighter, but the polls are in favor of the Republicans 55/45.
The most likely scenario, therefore, is that Republicans win both chambers of Congress, ending the Biden administration’s legislative ambitions as Democratic initiatives will not pass either chamber. The Republican Senate could also block Joe Biden’s nominations, as it did with Barack Obama, who prevented him from nominating Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court.
Due to the increase in voting by post, the final results of the elections cannot be known on Tuesday.
The second scenario in terms of odds is that the Republicans take the House of Representatives, but the Democrats retain control of the Senate. This would divide Congress and make passing legislation unlikely, but would keep intact the ability to confirm Democratic nominees.
The third scenario, which would come as a big surprise at a time of economic discontent and high inflation, would be that the Democrats retain control of both chambers. If so, it could be attributed to the impact of the repeal of the federal right to female-voiced abortion in suburban areas and the significant increase in the voice of young people, which is normally scarce in the interim, but which is doing well. appears positioned to break records in this election, according to the indicators coming from early voting and by correspondence. The latest NBC News poll, released Sunday, found that enthusiasm among Democratic voters rose in October (from 69% to 73%), while that of Republicans fell (from 78% to 73%).
However, the increase in postal voting may mean that the final results of the elections will not be known this Tuesday, just like in the presidential elections of 2020,” warned Daniela Melo. In this scenario, with narrow margins, there are likely automatic recounts and legal processes, further delaying final bills.
“On Election Night, the Democrats will have their nerves completely on edge,” the expert said.
Trump’s Return
A Biden weakened by Congressional ineffectiveness will be a boon to the Trump campaign, but the former president’s return could also reactivate Democrats. And to Daniela Melo, it’s not even clear that Donald Trump has an open road for the third Republican nomination for president.
“It does not seem evident that the Trumpist wing’s victory in the House of Representatives dictates that Trump will be the undisputed Republican candidate,” the political scientist said. “The party has mobilized itself in recent weeks in such a way that Trump will not be elected,” he said.
The professor mentioned the return of Paul Ryan, former Republican leader of the House of Representatives. “Suddenly he seems to be saying that anyone but Trump can win the Republican election,” he said.
Ryan said in a Fox Business segment that the new unpredictable voter is the suburban voter who likes Republicans but not Trump. “I think anyone not called Trump has a much better chance of winning the White House on our side,” the former speaker said.
A Republican victory in both houses of Congress will end the Biden administration’s legislative ambitions.
Daniela Melo said the midterm exam results will not necessarily translate into a seal of approval from Trump, who has toured the country at rallies supporting candidates.
“There is a big difference between what happens in the meantime and what will happen at the national level, because there the party knows that it cannot break,” he underlined.
This is something that is in jeopardy right now. “The Republican Party is a party on the brink of breaking up,” the expert said. “The party leadership realizes that it has two wings here: On the one hand, these midterms will strengthen the Trumpist wing. But nationally, my analysis is that it would be a gift to the Democrats if Trump were the candidate again.”
Joe Biden has a low popularity, around 42%-44%, and his win in 2020 was driven much more by the rejection of the other side (Trump) than by embracing his ideas. That is, Biden won a negative coalition against the former president. “The election is no longer about Biden and it is about Trump again,” Daniela Melo said.
Because Biden doesn’t have as loyal a base as the former president, but he also doesn’t generate as many antibodies as Trump. The return of this controversial figure would reactivate the feeling of rejection. “For Biden, that would be a life raft.”
Source: DN
