A symbol after years of cold. After the visit of the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Paris on Wednesday, a great classic of all German leaders once his appointment supported the deputies, Emmanuel Macron divided a message that said a lot.
“With a new great friend,” the head of state wrote in his X account, smiling next to his new counterpart.
“No LOVE FUSIVO”
The message is very clear: goodbye the coldness of the relationship with its predecessor Olaf Scholz, little concerned about a quality relationship with France in the European scene. Hello Friedrich Merz, who promised, following his appointment in the Elysée, to “find answers” to the common challenges between the two countries.
Enough to wait for the return of a powerful Franco -German couple who would walk hand in hand to weigh against Donald Trump, determined to apply very strong customs of the Customs Law on European products, or advance in the resolution of the conflict between Moscow and Ukraine.
“It will not be a fuse love. It will prefer a reasonable love where we will say why we do not agree, trying to take one step towards the other,” relativizes Christian Makarian, specialist in international questions.
Stay near the United States
First point of discord between the two men: the question of peace in Ukraine. Where Emmanuel Macron has a coalition of countries outside the United States to guarantee the security of the country after a high fire with Russia, Friedrich Merz is more nuanced. Germany is good to participate in a reinsurance force, but only in case of American participation in the “process.”
Berlin also plays the shadow letter on the issue of nuclear deterrence. The new chancellor said he was in favor of placing his country under the protection of the nuclear umbrella in London and Paris, a true turning point when Germany depended so far on Washington in the matter.
He also said he agreed to formalize a defense council with France. But there is no doubt that this new situation is “replaced by the guarantees offered by the United States” and NATO, said Friedrich Merz.
“Germany has its own interests, in particular its proximity to American consumers. The objective is not to get angry with Donald Trump,” translates Patrick Martin-Genier, a master of Unalco and specialist in Europe.
The economy first
The United States has returned to the first trade partner of Germany in 2024, dethroning China, who has held this position since 2016. In a context of the German economy in great difficulty, the country cannot afford the luxury of turning its back on Washington.
“Friedrich Merz will have to walk in a crest line between a Donald Trump, unpredictable but essential, and a Europe that needs without a goal of saying everything,” summarizes a ministerial collaborator who closely follows the Franco-German relationship.
The same mole in a possible agreement with Mercosur countries such as Brazil or Argentina. France fiercely opposes this text, which would allow most of the customs duties between the European Union and the countries of South America. Where France fears for their agriculture, especially in the sectors of beef, birds and wines, the Germans are very excited.
“A real basic disagreement” on an agreement with Mercosur
They see it as an ideal output for their cars, as well as their chemicals and steel.
“We have a real basic disagreement on the subject,” acknowledges a macronista macronista member of the Friendship-German Friendship Group. “But if Berlin really wants the agreement with Mercosur to succeed, he will need France at the same time to support him.”
In fact, it is impossible for the Free Trade Agreement to not enter the application without the unanimity of all European leaders. Far from being in a position of force in the file, Paris hopes to establish more protective quotas for the French sectors considered threatened by the agreement.
“We will find agreements that allow the correct preservation of working conditions, equity for our producers,” said Emmanuel Macron, very safe, after his press conference with his German counterpart.
“In this as in other issues, they will have to overcome the table, but there will be no miracle. They will not agree overnight,” warns Elvire Fabry, a commercial geopolitics researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute.
“The limits” of Friedrich Merz, “under surveillance”
Last burning file on the table: the debt issue. Germany has clearly softened its debt rules, so far very restrictive, to finance its defense more easily. The method has everything of a revolution in a country that has always made budget orthodoxy a cardinal principle.
But Friedrich Merz, who knows that he is under surveillance of his own coalition, does not want to go too far. Where Emmanuel Macron has Euro-Convenience, a common loan system to group the debt of countries that would increase his defense expenses, the new chancellor said no.
“We touch the limits of the new chancellor who knows that his coalition will monitor these questions and can overthrow it. He must also give the Germans time to digest such changes,” warns Elvire Fabry, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute.
Last Tuesday, Friedrich Merz did not surprise the general to be elected Chancellor during the first round of the vote despite the fact that a coalition agreement is considered solid. This had never happened since 1945. It is enough to say that the chancellor has no interest in bothering his allies, which makes it even more difficult for the deep changes in France.
Source: BFM TV
