Who in the Ukraine or Russia will benefit in the coming weeks from the drastic drop in temperatures? The first snowfall arrived in Kyiv on Thursday and winter is beginning to set in after nine months of war. But “the special military operation continues, its continuation does not depend on weather conditions,” Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov announced on Thursday.
Still, the Ukrainian cold will greatly change the balance of power between Volodymyr Zelensky’s army and Vladimir Putin’s. With temperatures that could approach minus 20 degrees in the east, the war in Ukraine will enter a new phase.
At the beginning of autumn, under the effect of a meteorological phenomenon called “raspoutitsa”, the ground had turned to mud in the country. The arrival of frost will solve this problem, hardening the soil and allowing the tanks to move more easily.
“Winter Games for Ukraine”
But at the same time, the troops will undoubtedly reduce their movements due to weather conditions. “You can already see that the bad weather in the Ukraine is slowing things down a bit,” US Assistant Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl said in early November. New York Times.
Officials quoted by the newspaper even affirm that the conflict should remain “blocked” until the beginning of 2023.
Several analyzes also give the advantage to Ukraine. Thanks to the help sent by his Western allies, Volodymyr Zelensky’s army is better equipped than the Russian troops. It is also less demoralized, as Vladimir Putin’s army has just withdrawn from Kherson.
“Winter plays for Ukraine,” say our colleagues from WorldJoseph Henrotin, researcher at the Center for Analysis and Forecasting of International Risks.
With the Kyiv IndependentAnalyst Michael Kofman maintains that Russian positions are vulnerable in the east of the country, and that in the south, Putin’s troops will seek to entrench themselves behind the Dnieper, the river that acts as a natural barrier.
An opportunity for negotiations?
However, the analyst believes that the next Ukrainian victories, if they come, will be achieved at a “slower” pace. Washington, through the voice of General Mark Milley, makes it clear that it will be “difficult” to expel Vladimir Putin’s army from the country.
Hence the message sent in recent days by Ukraine’s allies to Volodymyr Zelensky: it is (perhaps) time to negotiate with Moscow.
“The Russian military is suffering a lot,” says Mark Milley. “You have to negotiate when you are in a strong position and your opponent is weak,” he said.
Especially since the Ukrainian president went into isolation on Wednesday holding onto his version of the missile that landed in Poland, before finally putting it off.
The Kremlin, through the voice of Dimitri Peskov, deplored “the unwillingness of the Ukrainian side to start negotiations, its refusal to seek common ground.” Because the conditions raised by Kyiv to negotiate, many, are considered “unrealistic” by Moscow.
Russia continues to target the population
Without negotiation and after a withdrawal from Kherson, Russia decided to multiply the attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This Thursday, ten million Ukrainians were deprived of electricity, Volodymyr Zelensky said in the afternoon.
This strategy, of plunging the country into darkness and putting pressure on the population, will not give Russia victory, believes Isabelle Dufour, director of strategic studies at Eurocrise, on the set of BFMTV.
“This strategy of bombing critical infrastructures was theorized in the 1980s. We can now give the last word: it doesn’t work,” he says.
“The Ukrainian population is very united, they have suffered tremendously. It has become a nation with the conflict, ”she recalls. And before the arrival of the cold, many have prepared for a difficult winter.
At the beginning of November, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, considered that this Russian strategy served to “compensate” for Moscow’s defeats on the battlefield. “President Putin seems to have decided that if he can’t take Ukraine by force, he will try to freeze it until he submits,” he said.
Source: BFM TV
