There is a 60% chance that the hurricane season is more intense than normal in the North Atlantic this year, said the United States weather agency this Thursday, May 22, directed by budget cuts from the Trump administration.
It could be formed between 13 and 19 storms powerful enough to deserve to be designated by a name (with winds of more than 63 km/h), according to the American and Atmospheric Observation Agency (NOAA).
Among them, between six and ten could become hurricanes (more than 119 km/h), including three to five “main” hurricanes (178 km/ho more).
More than 200 dead in Héragan Hélène in 2024
According to NOAA, there is also a 30 % chance that the hurricane season is close to normal and 10 % of the possibilities that it is lower than normal. The hurricane season in the North Atlantic extends from the beginning of June until the end of November.
These hurricanes can be devastating at the human level as material, especially in the southern United States.
Last year, during a season that NOAA had anticipated as “extraordinary”, Hurricane Hélène had left more than 200 people in the southeast of the country.
The forecasts of the US agency are remarkably linked to warmer oceanic temperatures than the average, low wind shear forecasts (sudden variation in speed and/or wind direction at a short distance) and a potentially higher activity of the Mosson of Western Africa, the starting point for the Hurricane of the Atlantic.
“As we saw last year with important floods on Earth caused by Helene and Debby, hurricanes can touch far beyond coastal communities,” said the interim director of the NOAA, Laura Grimm, in a press release.
“The NOAA plays an essential role in the dissemination of precise forecasts and alerts and launched upstream, and provides the scientific experience necessary to save lives and infrastructure,” he added.
However, Rick Spinrad, former agency director, told AFP his concerns about NOAA’s ability to guarantee his mission, while meteorologists, technicians and other staff members were fired by the Trump administration.
Planned drastic budget cuts
In fact, the government is trying to reduce $ 1.3 billion in the agency’s budget, accused of being a “climate alarmist” for the 2025 project of distant reflection whose administration seems to follow the precepts.
“I am worried about the possibility of driving a plane or responding to the phone when these storms begin to fall on the country, and although weather services have to face tornadoes, forest fires, floods, extreme rainfall,” said Rick Spinrad.
Ocean temperatures have increased for decades due to the use of fossil fuels, explains Rick Spinrad, according to which “there is no doubt that climate change has contributed to some of the oceanic temperatures that are an important factor in these forecasts” of hurricanes.
Source: BFM TV
