The collapse of US financing dedicated to international aid, decided by the administration of Donald Trump, could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030 among the most vulnerable, including one third of children, according to a projection published on Tuesday, July 1 in the Lanceta.
“They run the risk of suddenly interrupting, or even reversing, two decades of progress for the health of vulnerable populations. For many low or intermediate revenue countries, the resulting shock would be of a magnitude comparable to that of a global pandemic or an armed conflict,” said Davide Rasella, co -author of the study and researcher at the Institute of Barcelona for global health for global health for a state of press.
The publication of the study in the prestigious medical magazine coincides with a conference on development financing that brings together leaders around the world, the United States in the absence. This meeting is held in a particularly dark context for development aid, beaten by the massive financing Cup decided by Donald Trump from his return to the White House last January.
700,000 deaths of additional children every year
When examining the data from 133 countries, the International Researchers team believed in retrospect that the USAID financed programs made it possible to avoid 91 million deaths in low -income and intermediate income countries between 2001 and 2021.
And, depending on its modeling, the 83% cup of American financing, a figure announced by the Government in early 2025, could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including more than 4.5 million children under five years old, or around 700,000 deaths of additional children per year.
In fact, programs backed by USAID were linked to a 15% decrease in deaths, all combined causes, these researchers calculated. For children under five years old, the fall in death has been twice as large (32%).
The strongest impact of this help for avoidable diseases was observed. Mortality due to HIV/AIDS was reduced by 74%, that of malaria in 53% and that of tropical diseases of 51% in countries that benefit from the highest level of help compared to those with little or no USAID funds, according to the study.
“It’s time to increase, not reduce”
Another source of concern: other main international donors, mainly European, such as Germany, Great Britain or France, also announced cuts in their foreign aid budgets following the United States.
This is likely to “lead to even more deaths in the coming years,” said Caterina Monti, another co -author of the study of researchers in Isglobal.
Around fifty heads of state and government, including French president Emmanuel Macron and the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, participate in the Conference on Development Development in Seville for four days, along with 4,000 representatives of civil society.
“It’s time to increase, not reduce,” Davide Rasella argued.
Before the size in its financing, USAID represented 0.3% of the US federal expenditure.
“American citizens pay approximately 17 hundred per day to the USAID, about $ 64 a year. I think most people would support the maintenance of USAID funds if they knew how much a small contribution to save millions of lives can be effective,” said James Macinko, co -author and study professor at the University of California (UCLA).
Source: BFM TV
