After months of intense fighting, the Russians said on Thursday, July 31, they have won the city of Tchassiv Iar in the Oblast Donetsk. Ukraine denies this statement and denounces “a lie” with AFP.
For Moscow, taking this town is of strategic and symbolic importance. A military expert cited by the Public Information Agency of Russia, Tass, compares this take with that of Bakhmout in May 2023 and considers that it opens the way to “the extension of new territorial gains for Russia to the north, west and south.”
A strategic block
To support his statements, the Russian Defense Ministry has disseminated the aerial opinions of this city still populated by approximately 12,000 inhabitants before the invasion in February 2022, desert since then and reduced to the state of ruin.
In one of these plans, a soldier floats the Russian flag. “The Russians participate in a war of communication for the benefit of their public opinion every time they take a village,” said General Jérôme Pellistrandi, BFMTV defense consultant.
This city of Tchassiv Iar constitutes a kind of blockade in Kramorsk, a city located about thirty kilometers west of Tchassiv Iar, an important rail node. The old fortress is also on a high field that dominates the valley in which Kramorsk is located.
Tchassiv Iar is also about sixty kilometers from the Mining City of Pokrovsk.
“It has been almost a year since the Russians try to take the city of Pokrovsk that constitutes a logistics center that can lead very directly to the south in Zaporijia, and we know the strategic side of Zaporijia,” recalls Jérôme Clech, former military advisor in the ministerial cabinet.
Territorial gains to be placed
By accentuating the pressure on the Ukrainian lines, the Russian army obtained profits from lean territory.
“The same scheme with fire support is always a bit, aviation will finally be able to hit the front line, the drones … obviously they are the artillery fire, always in greater numbers, more massive than Ukraine can answer in response,” illustrates Jérôme Clech.
This strategy causes great losses and the results are limited. “It is estimated that they are nibble in 20 square kilometers per day, the equivalent of a Parisian district. It is nothing on the scale of the country. These profits are obtained at the price of a thousand daily human losses,” relatively General Pellistrandi.
By destroying the localities they try to conquer, the Russians cannot immediately capitalize their claimed victories. This was explained by BFMTV, Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst, specialist in Central and Eastern Europe.
“It is always the same strategy. They manage to take cities after very complicated fights, the cities are flattened under the bombs. There is no capacity to recover.”
“In principle, it’s just one more city for Russians, but it falls at a key moment”
In the Oblast of Donetk that Moscow has established the objective of dominant completely, Ukraine still controls important cities such as Kramorsk, Kostiiantynivka or Sloviansk. It is this region that gives the Russians a difficult time. When they control an average of 80% of the coveted oblarts, they only obtained 65% domination in Donetsk specifies Jérôme Clech.
“The Russians are approaching. At the current rate, we have the feeling that in one, two, three years, they could reach the borders of the Dombass if the situation remains like this and if the Americans and Europeans do not accept to increase military aid,” warns Ulrich Bounat.
This claim to conquer Tchassiv Iar occurs when Donald Trump gave him a ten -day ultimatum to Vladimir Putin this Tuesday, July 29 for a high fire agreement and the end of the conflict. The Kremlin did not officially respond to the request of the US President.
The perspective of future negotiations for a peace encourages Vladimir Putin to intensify fights.
“In principle, it is only one more city for the Russians, but it falls at a key moment since Vladimir Putin is trying precisely to show Donald Trump that it is not yet time to negotiate and that his bad will in discussions with the Ukrainians is explained in this way,” analyzes Paul Gogo, corresponding BFMTV in Russia.
“Putin also knows that every occupied kilometer will not be due to negotiations if these negotiations arrive someday. Therefore, it makes a real effort in Donbass and, in particular, in the Donetsk region (the Lougansk region is considered completely taken), it is the key region of 2014, Tchassiv Iar is only a few kilometers of Donetsk, of which Russia had organized its destabilization of Donbass in 2014.
Source: BFM TV
