About 65 kilometers and years of tensions and lust. In the heart of the disputes between Russia and the allied countries of NATO, the Suwalki corridor, which separates the excavator of Kaliningrad to Belarus, is monitored particularly, a few days after the unprecedented intrusion of Russian drones in Polish territory.
A gap that attracts lust due to their strategic placement. “This corridor is the only land route that brings together Baltic countries to the rest of Europe and the rest of NATO’s allies,” said military historian Guillaume Lasconjarias, together with BFMTV.
“In other words, if the corridor is cut, the Baltic countries become an island and can only be supplied by the marine or air route, it gives you the strategic problem of control of this area,” he continues.
Consequently, Lithuania, who shares the border of this corridor in the northern part, with Poland for the South, has decided to strengthen her safety and “now complies with the highest standards in the protection of the outer border of the EU,” said Vladislav Kundoratovič, the Interior Minister, in a press release.
The latter specifies that a barrier has been mounted “throughout the border”, also evokes the establishment of advanced surveillance systems and the increase in the number of agents equipped with weapons “according to the NATO standards” at the border level.
Military exercises such as “provocations”
At the same time, “Zapad 2025” exercises, joint military training operations between Russia and Belarus began this Friday, September 12 and are held until Tuesday. They will also be carried out in the Cheap Mar and the Baltic Sea. These maneuvers take place while the Russian army is progressing on the Ukrainian front and intensifies its air attacks in Ukraine and Poland in particular.
For the military historian Guillaume Lasconjarias, this type of exercise has three interests, and first military to “train the troops.” Its second function aims to demonstrate the operational capacity of these troops and their credibility, which is their ability to participate in a conflict, continues, with BFMTV. Finally, this type of mission is used for strategic reports. “It is an extremely important expression because this strategic report is aimed at opponents, allies and their own public opinion,” he added.
The Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, believes that these maneuvers aim to simulate the occupation of the Suwalki corridor, which extends throughout bioressia in the east. Warsovia said he expected “provocations” during these exercises, the Minister of Poles Special Services, Tomasz Siemiak said on Friday.
This concern is based on concrete signals, including the increase in Russian military presence in Kaliningrad and Belarus, sudden maneuvers, unusual troops movements. “We see the essay of the patterns already observed before the war in Ukraine,” said former British intelligence officer Philip Ingram, in words reported by 112.Ua.
A concern that has grown for almost 10 years
The Security International Relations Researcher, Cindy Régnier, said in 2023 for the circuit that before 2015, this area was considered quite before becoming “the place with the most likely to be the scene of a war between Russia and NATO.”
This corridor is often considered a weak point of NATO, which could be the first objective of a possible Russian attack. This fear was reinforced by previous Zapad exercises in 2017 and 2021, which simulated an invasion of this corridor.
This fear is a “absurd total,” President Bélarusse Alexandre Loukachenko swept. On the Russian side, Western warnings derive regularly. Maria Zakharova, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denounced in June “the alarmist myths” around the corridor, accusing NATO of “being afraid” by stirring the spectrum of an imminent invasion.
“If we listen to the Russians, theoretically, we should not invade Ukraine,” says Guillaume Lasconjarias. “The discourse of the Russians in terms of strategic objectives is, in my opinion, to be taken with many precautions, and very clearly, it must be reasonably cautious,” he said. However, “in view of the contingents that would be implemented, because there is also an important point, the concept of risk is still limited.” He adds: “But that does not mean that it is not really dangerous.”
A vision shared by Tomas Godliauskas, Vice Ministry of Lithuanian Defense. “Russia is an enemy of long data and we have learned from history. We understand quite well how this country acts and really thinks,” he told Parliament.
A particular typology
Only strategic balances have evolved. The entrance of Finland and Sweden into the Alliance has changed the situation. “The Suwałki corridor has lost part of its importance, because NATO reinforcements can now reach the Baltic or air sea,” said Lithuanian analyst Darius Antanitis, with the defense blog.
The fact is that the resistant and wooded terrain of this area makes it difficult to defend and, therefore, a tempting target for Moscow. “It is far from being a very practical environment,” he emphasizes Guillaume Lasconjarias, citing the small number of access routes, “relatively dense” lakes and forests in the area. “Therefore, it is in fact a real difficulty and once it is cut, it is probably difficult to reopen it without participating in it. “
“History has taught us how Russia acts”
Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the perspective of a direct confrontation between Moscow and NATO is no longer theoretical. Last May, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned against the construction of Russia of an ideological narrative aimed at justifying future aggressions, as was the case of Ukraine.
If experts diverge in Moscow’s military capacity to open a new front in the coming years, the Suwałki corridor remains one of the symbols of European fragility. “History has taught us how Russia acts,” said Tomas Godliauskas, Deputy Minister of Lithuanian Defense in the Magazine of Parliament. “We are not allowed to underestimate this threat.”
How is NATO preparing for an attack?
The question of this corridor would arise less without the decisive role of the Russian ally played by Belarus. Alexandre Loukachenko’s country, which depends more and more on Russia, “behaves with the EU in an aggressive way,” says the military historian. And this, using quite “hybrid maneuvers”, without direct confrontation, but rather using “the weaknesses of its neighbors and, ultimately, of the European Union and NATO.” Especially because the country also welcomes its soil, not only Russian troops but also tactical nuclear missiles.
Given the reinforced threat of an attack against the corridor, NATO “has already prepared” has been at least 2020 for at least 2020 through the update of regional strategic plans, however, it guarantees Guillaume Lasconjarias. With the entrance to NATO of Sweden and Finland, the links with the Baltic countries have also evolved. “The Baltic Sea is today a` `Lake of NATO ‘,” summarizes. Therefore, the capacity for protection and intervention in this area has been strengthened, in the same way as the capabilities of the allies in terms of military armaments and cooperation.
“In general, the Germans put a brigade in Lithuania, the French have been working with the stages and have deployed a military operation for many years, the British has also established what is called a relaxing thread that makes the Russians decide to play with the safety of the Baltic states, we could answer,” concludes the military historian.
Source: BFM TV
