After Gaza, Ukraine. A few days after the implementation of the peace plan between Israel and Hamas, Donald Trump once again addresses the war in Ukraine. With the objective, also here, of the desire to find an agreement to end the conflict.
The American head of state receives his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House this Friday. And a few hours before this interview, the American president spoke by phone with Vladimir Putin.
“We agreed that there would be a meeting of our high-level advisors and then President Putin and I would meet in Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can end this ‘ignorant’ war between Russia and Ukraine,” Donald Trump said after the call.
“He had influence”
But Donald Trump, who does not hide his desire to obtain the Nobel Peace Prize, may not obtain results as positive as those obtained in Gaza. “The two are not comparable,” recalls Ulrich Bounat, a geopolitical analyst specializing in Central Europe and associate researcher at Eurocreative.
“First, in Gaza, Donald Trump was in control, so to speak, of the Israeli army. [d’un point de vue économique, NDLR]. “He had enormous influence against Benjamin Netanyahu,” which he does not have in Russia, says the expert.
Secondly, in Gaza, “the majority of the sponsors of the two protagonists agreed to achieve a ceasefire,” he explains. And he adds: “We don’t have the feeling at all that China, Iran or even North Korea are in this position. On the contrary, they are rather trying to help Russia hold on as long as possible.”
Finally, for him, “Donald Trump’s method is extremely vague.” “I think that neither the Europeans nor the Ukrainians are willing to sign an extremely vague document that would benefit Moscow,” says Ulrich Bounat.
A balance of power with Russia
The means of pressure available to the American president are actually quite weak. “There are no real sticks left because the sanctions have already been used massively against Russia,” says Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory and associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
Thus, “he has been trying to create a balance of power with Russia for three weeks to try to start a negotiation with the Russian president and restart a diplomatic phase,” he says.
Donald Trump in particular threatened to sell long-range American Tomahawk missiles to Europeans to deliver to Ukraine. “If this war doesn’t end, I will send you Tomahawks,” he said Sunday.
It is also trying to put pressure on countries that continue to buy Russian hydrocarbons, which allow them to finance part of the war. “But at the moment it doesn’t work,” says Igor Delanoë.
“It solved part of the problem”
Where the Oval Office tenant’s bet seems to have been advantageous for the United States is in the financing of the aid granted to Ukraine. “At the moment it brings money to the United States, since since this summer it is the Europeans who pay for the supply of American weapons to Ukraine. In reality, from their point of view, it has solved part of the problem because it brings money to American defense companies,” he adds.
So what can you expect from the meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky? “Inevitably there will be announcements about sending military material to Ukraine, but not financed by the Americans,” says Ulrich Bounat. “There may be announcements about economic partnerships. Regarding the Tomahawk, I still have many doubts. Finally, it is possible that there will be an announcement of the purchase by the Ukrainians of American liquefied natural gas,” he adds.
These new exchanges with their Ukrainian and Russian counterparts could therefore lead to new negotiations. However, there is nothing to indicate that they will allow the war to be stopped or even a ceasefire to be achieved. For Igor Delanoë, “we don’t have the feeling that talks are going to start soon.”
Source: BFM TV
