The Israeli “153 tons of bombs” dropped on Gaza this Sunday, October 19, which have killed at least 45 people, in response according to the Jewish State to Hamas attacks, reveal the fragility of the ceasefire in force for 10 days. A fragility like the thread on which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks to deal with the radical sector of his coalition and US President Donald Trump. The former want the war in Gaza to continue when the second wants peace in the Middle East to claim the trophy.
“Donald Trump twisted Benjamin Netanyahu’s arm, he imposed the end of the war on him,” recalls Frédérique Schillo, historian, specialist in Israel and international relations.
“The power of the Americans is such that Benjamin Netanyahu cannot go against them”
The American president managed to get Israel and Hamas to sign a ceasefire on October 9, the first phase of a 20-point agreement favorable to the Jewish State aimed at ending the deadly war in Gaza that has been waged since October 7, 2023.
And he intends to carry out this “peace plan” that provides for the long-term disarmament of Hamas and a new governance in Gaza, despite the many obstacles that stand in the way.
After the Israeli attacks this Sunday raised fears of a collapse of the truce, Donald Trump assured that the ceasefire remained in force. His emissaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in Israel this Monday to supervise the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
“The power of the Americans, their political and diplomatic influence, but also their power over the Israeli army and its equipment, is such that Benjamin Netanyahu cannot go against them,” says Frédérique Schillo.
The United States remains one of Israel’s only strong supporters on the international stage. The Jewish state has been gradually repudiated in recent months in the face of the serious humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the headlong rush towards war with the conquest of Gaza City.
The fall of Benjamin Netanyahu into the hands of the Israeli extreme right
But unlike Donald Trump, “Benjamin Netanyahu and his followers do not want the end of the war,” says the co-author of Under your stones, Jerusalem (Ed.Plon).
The far right of the ruling coalition opposes the American billionaire’s plan. He wants the continuation of the war that has already left more than 68,000 dead in Gaza, the establishment of Israeli colonies in the Palestinian enclave and the total annexation of the West Bank.
“Several of these deputies boycotted Donald Trump’s speech in the Knesset (in front of the Israeli Parliament on October 13, ed.),” notes Frédérique Schillo.
The two most radical figures in Benjamin Netanyahu’s Government, the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, and the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, celebrated this Sunday the temporary breaking of the ceasefire. “War!” he simply wrote the first in X when the second called on the Israeli Prime Minister “to fully resume fighting in the Gaza Strip, with all his forces.”
“The Nazi terrorist organization must be completely destroyed,” Itamar Ben-Gvir continued, referring to Hamas.
The Minister of National Security issued an ultimatum to Benjamin Netanyahu. “What I want, and this is also what Netanyahu promised me, is the dismantling of Hamas. If he does not dismantle it, he knows very well what will happen,” he declared this Saturday, according to comments collected by the Times of Israel.
The extreme right thus threatens to abandon the already minority coalition of the Israeli Prime Minister. Enough to cause its fall and, therefore, early elections.
“Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have lost many feathers during the war. Until now they have refused to criticize Netanyahu, who followed a policy that was favorable to them, and the coalition because they fear elections. But if the Israeli army withdraws completely, they will have to decide,” says the Israel specialist.
Weakened, Benjamin Netanyahu tries to take advantage of “Trumpmania”
In the event of the fall of his government and new elections, Benjamin Netanyahu risks losing power. The Prime Minister is weakened. He faces an Israeli population and reservists exhausted by the various wars fought in the last two years, from Gaza to Lebanon via Iran. A large part of society resents him for his ambiguous policy towards hostages for two years and blames him for the failure of October 7 that caused the death of 1,221 people, most of them civilians.
“On paper, all polls announce the winning opposition,” says Frédérique Schillo.
The Likud president, however, recovered the flag with the ceasefire agreement and the return of the 20 hostages alive on October 13… thanks to Donald Trump.
“Israelis have the feeling of having closed a chapter, today there is a real Trumpmania in Israel,” he says. “62% believe that it was Trump who allowed the ceasefire.”
The “political magician” tries to capture the light of the American president and restore his image. “We see that it is rising in the polls,” says the historian. And the best thing for his political future would be to maintain this course.
If the Prime Minister is not re-elected to his position during the next elections, he will surely have to submit to a commission of inquiry of the Supreme Court into the rulings of October 7, demanded by a significant part of the population. “Remaining in power allows him to prevent the creation of a commission of inquiry before which he will have to admit his errors,” explains Frédérique Schillo. The position of Prime Minister also allows him to delay the corruption trial for which he is being tried, which puts him at risk of spending ten years in prison.
Benjamin Netanyahu is thus performing a balancing act between Donald Trump, who pushes for a complete end to the war – and allows him to gain esteem in Israeli society – and the extreme right of his coalition, which threatens to overthrow him if he gives in to the White House, with the risk of failing to overcome the population’s resentment at the polls.
Source: BFM TV
