A new European country with a government backed by the far right, or a third term from the left? Sweden began voting this Sunday after a campaign with maximum suspense and an unprecedented scenario, dominated by crime and inflation.
Until these legislative elections, the traditional Swedish right had never considered governing with the direct or indirect support of the Sweden Democrats (SD).
Long pariah, the nationalist and anti-immigration party is on track according to the polls to take second place never reached and become the first formation of a new right-wing bloc.
A “red-green” set
The outgoing prime minister, Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, hopes to stay in power on the basis of a “red-green” package, for the third term in four consecutive years for the left.
The campaign was dominated by issues likely to favor the right-wing opposition: crime and deadly gang settlements, rising fuel and electricity prices, problems integrating immigrants…
But the solid popularity of Andersson, whose confidence rating exceeds that of his Tory rival Ulf Kristersson, as well as the bogeyman of the far right, argues in favor of the left.
ultra tight numbers
All five pollsters give the red-green side a slight lead in their later rounds, but all are within the margin of error and the numbers have been very tight for weeks.
The left-wing bloc led by the Social Democrats – the largest party in Sweden since the 1930s – with the expected support of the Greens, the Left Party and the Center Party, is credited with between 49.6% and 51, 6%.
The total of the right-SD, Moderate Party (conservative), Christian Democratic Party and Liberal Party- navigates between 47.6% and 49.4%.
Online betting sites give Magdalena Andersson a slightly better chance of victory (1.6 to one) than Ulf Kristersson (2.2 to one).
“It would be a different Sweden”
“It’s very, very tight,” the prime minister said as he left the polling station on Sunday morning.
The day before, on her last day of campaigning, she said she was “concerned about a government completely dependent on the Sweden Democrats … It would be a different Sweden than the one we would have for four years.”
The last two weeks of the campaign have seen SD, led by their leader Jimmie Åkesson in the fifth election, outperform the Moderates in the polls, by around 19-21%, a new record.
“My country has completely changed from when it was perhaps the safest in the world,” Ulrika, a 56-year-old SD voter, told AFP. She attributes the responsibility “to the other cultures that arrive in the country.”
Disagreements between left and center parties
For Erwin Marklund, a 34-year-old leftist voter who works in TI, on the other hand, it is “important not to let the extreme right into the system.”
Led for the second time by Ulf Kristersson, the moderates lost ground by between 16% and 18% in the latest opinion polls, raising concerns within the party.
The post of Prime Minister traditionally reverts in Sweden to the first party of the victorious alliance.
But the traditional right-wing parties are hostile to his return to the SD, as they are to his entry into government.
Also on the left, the exact shape of an executive that comes out of the polls remains marked by uncertainty, with discrepancies between left and center parties.
But political scientists say a political crisis similar to the one that followed the 2018 election – four months to form a government – is unlikely as the fields are better defined.
349 seats are allocated proportionally
The victory of the right supported by the extreme right would open a new political era for Sweden, which must assume the rotating presidency of the European Union on January 1 and materialize its historic candidacy for NATO – also supported by the right.
A new victory for the left would invalidate the approach strategy of the Moderates, Sweden’s second party for more than 40 years.
A total of 349 seats are allocated proportionally to parties that reach at least 4%. To be sworn in, a Prime Minister must not have 175 votes or more against him, but not necessarily an absolute majority in favor of him.
About 7.8 million voters are called to the polls, in a country of 10.3 million souls, with a traditionally very high turnout (87% in 2018).
Polling stations close at 8:00 p.m. local time (6:00 p.m. GMT), when two exit votes are expected. The most reliable partial results should be available approximately two hours later.
Source: BFM TV
