Vladimir Putin clings to his fantasy. According to an American think tank that daily follows the evolution of the conflict, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian president ordered Valéri Guerassimov to prepare a major offensive in Ukraine without delay. The instructions addressed to the chief general of the occupation troops contain an imperative: full possession of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the east of the country, already annexed by the Kremlin, by March.
more network
In its bulletin published on Thursday, the ISW cites a source within Ukrainian intelligence. It is this interlocutor who assures that the Russian General Staff has received instructions to take control of Donbass within two months. Already on Wednesday, Andriy Chernyak, representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, had unfolded the same scenario in the columns of the Kyiv Post.
The US think tank says troops deployed by Vladimir Putin have begun taking initial precautions. Thus, mobile internet access has been cut off in the areas they occupy. Then, from February 11, next Saturday, the entire network must be neutralized.
The explanation is simple: prevent the communications emanating from the laptops of Russian soldiers from revealing the movements and plans of their divisions. “Russian forces may have learned from previous operational failures in security,” ISW notes allusively.
We know in particular that the attack on the Makiivka barracks, which had cost the lives of at least 89 Russian recruits – according to the lower rank of a still uncertain number – had been authorized because the latter had involuntarily betrayed their positions via cellular data from Their phones
race against the clock
As for the human resources allocated to this offensive, the figures continue to float. On Wednesday night, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov judged on BFMTV that his enemy had been able to massage half a million men. “Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our estimates it is much more”, he had punctuated, to later advance the figure of 500,000 soldiers.
Regardless of the Kremlin’s math and the precautionary luxuries it purports to surround this impending operation with, the Institute for the Study of War posits that Vladimir Putin may have “overestimated” his forces, especially in the time available. The ISW argues that “42% ofcounty Donetsk” are under Ukrainian control, that is, 11,300 km2. In addition, the month of April is usually very rainy in Ukraine, bad weather under which the Russian offensive threatens to bog down.
A lowered target
One additional aspect further reinforces the sense of urgency: the imminent arrival of heavy tanks and Western weaponry to alleviate Ukraine’s shortages. Valery Solovei, former professor at the Moscow Institute of International Relations -responsible for the training of diplomats and spies according to the daily mail who broadcast his analysis, explained Sunday night during a live broadcast on Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s YouTube channel: “That’s why this is the last chance to attack Ukraine.”
“But not with the objective of a final victory,” he clarified: “It is very important to understand that. That objective is no longer relevant at all. The objective now is totally different: to end the war honorably (…) It is about to maintain a minimum of Russian conquests, that is, the Donbass, part of the annexed territories -but not all- and Crimea.
According to him, “the Russians do not expect more.”
look south and east
Valery Solovei told the same outlet that Vladimir Putin had ordered Valery Guerassimov, the commanding general of the Russian troops in Ukraine, to launch his assault in “several directions.” Oleksiy Reznikov said that he expected the Russian effort to be concentrated mainly in the south of the country or in the Donbass.
But if, in Vladimir Putin’s mind, this offensive should allow Russia to save its furniture by March, the attack must, of course, start a few weeks earlier. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine imagines that it will happen in three weeks. “We think that since they (the Russians, editor’s note) live on symbolism, they will try to try something around February 24,” he told BFMTV on Wednesday night.
Russian generals “terrified”
February or March, Vladimir Putin’s officers fear that the date of the attack is premature anyway, and they fear that they will lead their soldiers directly to another carnage. This is at least what Valéry Guerassimov underlined once again: “The staff are terrified by the instructions of the commander-in-chief (Vladimir Putin, editor’s note). I am not exaggerating. They are horrified.” “They are afraid of losing what remains of their strength in the slaughter that Putin’s order will lead them to,” he concluded.
The number of Russian losses is already terrible. A week ago, the chief of the Norwegian General Staff, Eirik Kristoffersen, estimated on his country’s television that adding up the soldiers killed or wounded in combat on the Russian side, we are “approaching” 180,000. An amount that remains very difficult to establish, however, due to the opacity with which Vladimir Putin’s regime talks about its “special operation”.
Visibly well-informed, the Ukrainians await their opponents with a firm footing anyway. And they don’t seem to have a shaky hand. Therefore, ISW notes in its bulletin that the Ukrainian generals are already looking beyond the upcoming Russian aggression and are working on their own counter-offensive…planned for the summer.
Source: BFM TV
