Now it is an open secret. Russia is actively preparing a major offensive in southern and eastern Ukraine, aiming to seize full control of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions by March, which it claims to have annexed but largely eludes it.
In any case, the Ukrainian authorities and intelligence services are convinced of this. In an article published Monday citing an adviser attached to the Ukrainian military, the financial times it specifies the date of this imminent coup and the places where it would occur.
This advisor attached to the Ukrainian army thus indicates that the Russian troops will launch their offensive within ten days, basing his conviction “on very solid information.” Regarding the framework of this new aggression, the consultant foresees an attack in the west of the Luhansk province, between the towns of Lyman -already the scene of intense fighting in autumn- and Kreminna.
two fronts
In addition to this eastern front, the Russian army would also like to attack further south on the Donetsk side, also deploying support troops to the towns surrounding Mariupol, according to a local official in exile. However, the military adviser interviewed by the British newspaper is skeptical about the strategic opportunity of launching these two simultaneous battles.
“If they are smart, they will concentrate their forces in a circumscribed place,” he told the Financial Times.
The forces that the Ukrainians will face remain uncertain. Kyrylo Budanov, who was in charge of presenting the Ukrainian resignations, could replace Oleksiy Reznikov at the tête du ministère de la Défense, and all estimated that Russia disposed of a total of 326,000 combatants sur le front, dont une moitié ont reçu une formation de many months.
Elite units at the forefront
The military adviser quoted by the British newspaper also calls for taking the threat “seriously”, assuring that the vanguard of this next aggression will be made up of elite units.
“They are motorized brigades worthy of the name, although they no longer have the same capabilities as at the beginning of the war. They have reinforced their marine infantry and paratrooper units. They are not bus drivers or teachers,” he asserted.
The imminence of this Russian offensive is based on three factors. The first, pointed out last week by Oleksiy Reznikov, is “symbolism” in the words of the minister: commemorating one year of the conflict with a new initiative. It is above all about getting past the Ukrainians and their Western allies before the tanks and weapons of the international community arrive on the battlefield. Finally, according to an observation of the group of experts American Institute for the Study of Warfare, operations must be ramped up before the April rains.
Source: BFM TV
