The Ukrainian economy could grow by 1% this year, after contracting some 34% last year, according to a study by Allianz Trade, shareholder of Cosec – Companhia de Seguro de Créditos.
As Ukraine marks a year of war, this study stressed that priority should be given to reconstruction in Ukraine, which should “start as soon as possible”. Thus, among the structures that should be restored more quickly are those of health care, logistics, housing and schools, Allianz Trade emphasized. According to the entity, restoring this infrastructure should cost at least between €100 and €150 billion in private investment, in addition to €350 billion in external aid.
In turn, despite the sanctions, Russia’s economy held up “much better than expected”, with gross domestic product (GDP) registering a contraction of “only 2.1% last year”, and according to the study, it will 1% down this year. “However, the outlook is difficult” in this context, Allianz Trade said, warning that financing Russia’s budget after 2023 could be more complicated.
As for energy prices, the study indicates that they will remain at a high level, both for oil and natural gas. “All in all, inflation will remain uncomfortably high”he pointed out, but energy inflation should come down significantly in the coming quarters.
Source: DN
