The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 also served to awaken an alliance that many thought was dormant. The next day, Jens Soltenberg warned that the “Kremlin’s goals” were not limited to Ukraine.
The concern spread to neighboring Finland and Sweden, which expressed their desire to join NATO. But Turkey has blocked. Even so, international relations professor Ana Isabel Xavier believes that this portfolio should not go to the new leader.
“With the recent earthquake in Turkey, Finland and Sweden were among the biggest donors. Obviously with the more than explicit interest of Erdogan [Presidente da Turquia] change his position, but I would say that this issue has been assigned for weeks,” he said.
António Martins da Cruz, who represented Portugal in NATO between 1995 and 1999, separates the issue in two. For the former ambassador, Finland’s accession could take place until the end of Stoltenberg’s term, the same should not happen with Sweden: “As long as Turkey understands that the conditions it has set are not met, it will be very difficult to get a yes from the Turkish government “.
The executive led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has refused to ratify its accession, alleging that Sweden has harbored terrorists from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has been fighting for decades to separate from Turkey. To confirm the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, Ankara has imposed conditions, which it considers have not yet been met.
However, the impasse can be unblocked after the Turkish elections, scheduled for May 14. Martins da Cruz warns that “prudence dictates that we wait for the result to see whether or not Turkey changes its position”, while Ana Isabel Xavier anticipates that Erdogan will use “the accession of Finland and Sweden for internal consumption, in a sort of instrumentalization”. . Even so, the professor of International Relations believes that even if the impasse is not overcome by May, “the process should be unblocked after the summer”, that is, Stoltenberg will end his term with the double accession concluded.
The Norwegian leaves the emphasis on investment to the next Secretary General and, furthermore, it was the current leader of NATO who, when he joined the organization in 2014, convinced the allies to spend 2% of their Gross Domestic Product on defending.
Since then, the average spending of the 30 partners has increased each year, but in terms of the goal defined nine years ago, only eight countries meet it. Portugal is one of the countries that is left out, despite António Costa, at the Madrid Summit in 2022, admitting the possibility of reaching 2% of national GDP in defense by the end of the decade, but without any commitment.
“It is obvious that it is an ideal goal. We cannot forget that governments are going through a difficult stage because after Covid-19, which caused extraordinary expenses, we entered an inflationary stage and that made it difficult to manage each of their budgets. countries”, recalls António Martins da Cruz.
One of the biggest challenges the next Secretary General will face will be the war in Ukraine, but the former ambassador warns of what could follow: “We don’t know when the conflict in Ukraine will end, how it will end, but we cannot exclude, in addition to the support for the reconstruction of the country, that there is no commitment to peacekeeping missions for what can be called European, NATO and European Union countries”.
But until that time comes, Stoltenberg’s successor will be faced with the difficult balance of maintaining military support for Ukraine and staying out of the conflict, but from that point of view the next Secretary General will have the assurance that NATO is an alliance. defense and arms transfer. to Ukraine is not being carried out by the alliance.
Ana Isabel Xavier points out that this task has been ensured by “a coalition that brings together more than 40 countries, members of NATO, but not only, led by the United States”, that is, the Atlantic Alliance as an organization has not sent weapons
Source: TSF
