The professor of Diplomacy at the Universidade Portucalense, Tiago Ferreira Lopes, defends in an interview with TSF that the prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, carried out this week, could open new doors for dialogue in the conflict, above all because it shows the will to do so.
“The only possibility of changes will be to try to return to the negotiating table. This exchange of prisoners was very significant because it shows that there is a will to negotiate, the way is open to make concessions and exchange prisoners”, explains the professor.
Although some analysts have pointed to the initiative as a “sign of Moscow’s fragility, which it is”, the professor also points out that the desire to “go to the negotiating table” is emerging.
The Kremlin agreed to free “more than 200 prisoners in exchange for 55”, but these accounts cannot be made “one by one”, he points out.
“It is obvious that in these 55, some of the prisoners have a high political value for Russia, like the former deputy who was released in the meantime. There, obviously, the lives do not count one by one, the calculation in a prisoner the exchange is not done head to head and it is important to make it clear”, emphasizes Tiago Ferreira Lopes in TSF.
This exchange also arose, he stresses, with another “new fact that has been underlined: a new mediator, Saudi Arabia”, which seems to have “overlooked Turkey”.
“Just this week, Putin and Crown Prince Bin Salman spoke on the phone to congratulate each other on the success of the prisoner exchange. It seems that there are new positions that will take effect in the coming weeks and months, ”he forecasts.
here comes winter
Even after the speech in which Putin announced the partial mobilization of the Russians, Ukraine’s counteroffensive continues, but Tiago Ferreira Lopes warns that Russian capacity cannot and should not be underestimated, especially with winter just around the corner.
In addition to the aptitude that Russia has already shown to “reorganize and position itself on the ground”, the winter factor, the professor points out, must be present in everyone’s mind.
“In general, winter tends to be favorable to Russia, which uses it cyclically. It is enough to read a bit of Russian history, it is enough to go from the 19th century to the present day, not even to previous cycles, to understand how Russia often manages to use the cold to its advantage, ”she warns.
And if winter can be favorable for the Kremlin on the ground and in the fighting, it can also bring new diplomatic and economic assets. The cold “is going to lead to very complicated elections in Europe” and the first effects already seem to be felt.
“The Europeans will be able to start, from here, to put pressure on governments so that they do not support Russia -I do not think that is the way to go-, but instead dissupport or support Ukraine less and less”, argues Tiago Ferreira Lopes citing the case. of the Estonian prime minister, “who has come close to losing a government twice this year because of the conflict”.
Kaja Kallas told Estonians that “you have to prepare for the possibility of partial blackouts during the winter, because Russia may go offline”, a warning echoed by the Latvian government.
“It is very likely that, from now on, in Eastern Europe we will begin to have this type of dynamic”, something that “obviously will bring the population to the streets as has already happened”.
In recent weeks there have been protests, although “little media coverage in the West”, which have filled the streets of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and, more recently, Austria. The message from the population is that governments must first protect those who elected them “and not necessarily protect foreign governments.”
“I think the Kremlin is trying to capitalize on that dynamic,” he concludes.
Source: TSF
