Turkey is holding a second round of presidential elections for the first time in history. But what may at first seem like a setback for the current head of state, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years and is seeking a third consecutive term, shows in detail that he is not as obsolete as expected. And that the opposition, even united around Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, seems far from being able to defeat the country’s strongman.
Pre-election polls gave Kilicdaroglu victory, in some cases to the first round, but the polls saw Turkey’s approximately 64 million voters reaffirm their support for Erdogan. According to preliminary results, and with a record 88.8% participation, the 69-year-old president had 49.5% of the vote and was on the verge of having the party now, compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%, five years older. In the two previous presidential elections by universal suffrage, in 2015 and 2018 (before the election of the head of state by parliament), Erdogan had won in the first round.
The president could not repeat the feat, but starts as the favorite for the second round. Not only because he was on the brink of victory this Sunday, but also because he The Justice and Development Party (AKP) received the most votes for the Grand National Assembly. It elected 267 of the 600 deputies and the Popular Alliance, of which it is a part, won a majority (322 representatives). The Nation Alliance won only 213 delegates, 169 of which came from Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP)..
In the two weeks of the election campaign leading up to the second round on May 28, Erdogan will undoubtedly repeat that it makes no sense to hand over the presidency to the opposition with a majority in parliament. And that the scenario of a divided government will be the worst for Turkey, which is facing an economic crisis caused by high inflation and is still recovering from the February earthquakes that caused the deaths of more than 50 thousand people. In the end, these did not have the expected electoral impact: the opposition won in one of the hardest-hit regions, Hatay, but the president won in the other, Ganziatep. And in the parliamentary elections, Erdogan’s AKP won both.
Without a majority in the Grand National Assembly, Kilicdaroglu will not be able to fulfill its big election promise – that of returning to the parliamentary system that gave way to the presidential system in 2018. Another pledge of the opposition candidate is the independence of the judiciary, which critics accuse Erdogan of using to silence both dissidents and the media. If he finally reverses the result, Kilicdaroglu will have to hand-negotiate any change, and the task would be difficult at the head of a six-party alliance from various political quarters – from the centre-left to the nationalist right.
The fact that Kilicdaroglu won the presidential elections in Istanbul and Ankara, but the AKP was the most voted party in the parliamentary elections in both cities, shows that while they are open to change, the Turks do not seem to want them to be radical and trust not on the alliance of opposition parties. Despite the defeat, Kilicdaroglu was confident this Monday that it was still possible to win: “Don’t despair. I will continue with my head held high. I will explain everything that happened. And then we will stand up and win this election together,” he wrote on Twitter. “In the end, it’s what our nation decides”, referred.
The president also responded on social media. “With the maturity you showed yesterday [domingo]”Turkey has shown that it is one of the countries with the most advanced democratic culture in the world,” he wrote on Twitter. “As a politician who has never known any power other than the will of the nation and has never deviated from the direction drawn by the nation, we respect this will reflected in the polls,” he added, referring to the need to go to a second round. “We will emerge victorious from the May 28 election, building on the vote we secured on May 14, and look forward to achieving historic success.”, he said. It is his wish to be in power when the centenary of the Republic is celebrated in October.
The president will again appeal to the state apparatus to increase the chances of success. Five days before the election, he increased the civil service (another 45%, after an official inflation rate of 80% last year), cut electricity prices and gave free natural gas for a month. Erdogan also has the backing of the media, with an estimated 90% owned by the state or allies, who have given him more airtime than his main rival.
Kingmaker?
Sinan Ogan, the third candidate in the race (a fourth withdrew within three days of the election, but still garnered nearly 240,000 votes), won 5.2% of the presidential vote — but the alliance he led, the Ancestral Alliance, got no representation. parliamentary. A nationalist candidate with roots in a far-right party that supports Erdogan, in theory most of his 2.8 million votes should eventually go to the current president. Even if Kilicdaroglu also counts, among the parties that are part of his Alliance of the Nation, with the support of another party from the radical right.
Ogan, a 55-year-old former academic, said in an interview with Reuters on Monday that he would listen to the grassroots before deciding which of the two candidates to support. any concessions to the pro-German party Kurd who was on his side. “The fight against terrorism and the return of refugees are our red lines,” he said.
The People’s Democratic Party (left) supported the opposition presidential candidate, while the Free Cause Party (Hüda-Par, pro-Islamist Kurd) supported Erdogan. Kurds make up a fifth of the population and about 10% of the 64 million voters, so it was thought that support from the main pro-Kurdish party would be beneficial to Kilicdaroglu. But Erdogan took the opportunity to claim that the opposition was in the hands of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an organization considered terrorist and fighting for the region’s independence.
international responses
Despite some chaos in the vote count, with the opposition complaining that votes in areas where they had a majority were not revealed, international observers say the poll was clean and transparent. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, congratulated Turkish voters on their record turnout. “It is a clear sign that Turks are committed to exercising their democratic rights and votes, and also that they value democratic institutions,” he said.
Negotiations on Turkey’s accession to the European Union, which began in 1987, have been suspended since 2018, with the relationship between Erdogan and Brussels not always the best. Kilicdaroglu defends approach to 27, expecting to restart negotiations. But von der Leyen declined to commit, saying the election “is still open”.
On the side of Russia, which accused Kilicdaroglu of meddling days before the vote, the Kremlin said it expected ties between the two countries to grow regardless of the election result. In contrast to the relationship with the Europeans, Erdogan has strengthened the relationship with the Russians in recent years. Despite Turkey being a member of NATO, Ankara maintains good relations with both Moscow and Kiev.
Grand National Assembly
In addition to the president, voters were called upon to elect the 600 members of the Grand National Assembly. Thirteen parties from three alliances will be represented.
People’s Alliance: The alliance led by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) won a majority of 322 deputies. The AKP alone, which received the most votes, chose 267 representatives (including four from the Democratic Left Party and the pro-Kurdish Free Cause Party, which were on their lists). The Nationalist Movement Party elected 50 deputies and the Social State New Party elected five.
Alliance of the Nation: The opposition, united around Kilicdaroglu, won 213 seats in the Assembly, of which 169 went to his Republican People’s Party (CHP). The CHP’s lists included the Democratic Party, the Party of Democracy and Progress, the Party of the Future and the Party of Happiness, which together elected 34 delegates. The Good Party, the only one to run separately within the alliance, won 44 seats.
Alliance Work and Freedom: The left alliance gained 65 MPs, the Green Left Party 61 and the Turkish Workers’ Party another four.
Ancestral Alliance: The far-right alliance that supported Ogan took just 2.4% of the vote and elected no delegates. At least 7% needed.
Source: DN
