The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be “near normal,” with one to four Category 3 or higher hurricanes, according to forecasts released Thursday by the US weather services.
The season runs from the beginning of June to the end of November.
Despite the statistics, “it only takes one storm to devastate our community,” warned Rick Spinrad, director of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which announced the forecasts today.
In all, between 12 and 17 storms (with winds greater than 40 miles per hour) could develop and be named, according to NOAA. Between five and nine could become hurricanes (greater than 119 kilometers per hour), including between one and four of category 3 or higher (greater than 178 kilometers per hour).
For several years, the agency predicted above-normal activity.
The meteorological phenomenon “La Niña” -which takes place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is characterized by the cooling of the water surface- has been present for three years. This phenomenon and the opposite, “El Niño”, which causes the warming of water, have consequences on the climate of the entire planet.
But the US agency now forecasts, with almost certainty, that the phenomenon “El Niño” will develop this summer. “El Niño” tends to moderate hurricane activity in the Atlantic, NOAA explains.
However, this effect can be offset by favorable local conditions, warned the US agency.
In 2022, Hurricane Ian devastated Florida, causing dozens of deaths and more than $100 billion in damage, making it by far the costliest weather catastrophe in the world last year.
In general, with global warming, hurricanes are becoming more powerful, driven by a warmer ocean surface, scientists say.
“These storms will continue to develop faster, they will be more powerful and they will last longer,” Deanne Criswell, director of the federal disaster response agency (FEMA) said today.
Source: TSF
