Ana Isabel Xavier, a researcher at the ISCTE center for international studies, says that the war in Ukraine will enter a new phase, with Russia increasingly isolated, but with Vladimir Putin increasingly expanding his area of power.
“We can expect what has been talked about for some time, which is the possibility that Vladimir Putin will extend to these regions – Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – the same laws that are in force in Russia, namely martial law, being able to immediately mobilize all citizens capable of fighting in these territories”, he warns, in statements to TSF. “Also to issues more related to public life, namely curfews.”
“What could have the most impact, even in the evolution of this special military operation, is undoubtedly the question of legitimate defense, that is, with the annexation of these four regions, Vladimir Putin considers himself legitimate and legitimate to defend . as if they were Russian territory and Russian sovereignty, so any possible Ukrainian retaliation or counter-offensive in these regions will be considered a declaration of war against the Russian Federation and the Russian Federation will have the legitimacy to react and retaliate in a proportionate manner. Or not.”
Although both Ukraine and the West have already considered the referendums a farce, Ana Isabel Xavier explains that the international community “can do little or nothing to prevent the conflict from escalating even more.” All that remains is military support for Ukraine and the application of more sanctions.
“This is the time for the international community to tighten sanctions, sanctions that will always have a very limited effect,” he points out, especially since the European Union is already in the eighth package of sanctions (if approved, on October 20 and 21 in the European Council), “which means that the margin of action and condemnation is getting smaller and smaller”.
“In addition, there are no longer large individuals, large fish to catch in these sanctions,” he says.
“On the other hand, any rhetorical-operational hardening by the national community at this stage will lead to a hardening of the escalation,” he warns. The only viable alternative is to follow the political-diplomatic path, supporting Ukraine so that the country itself responds to possible attacks, without external intervention.
“Since the conflict in question does not take place in any Member State, neither NATO nor the European Union, theoretically there is no capacity or legitimacy for the European Union or NATO to intervene directly in the conflict,” he recalls.
The Kremlin announced on Thursday that the four Ukrainian regions that have held referendums on joining Russia – Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – will join the country on Friday.
Presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov added that Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of the four regions will sign the treaties to join Russia on Friday at a ceremony in the Kremlin.
Source: TSF
