The Economic and Social Council (CES) considers the government’s forecast economic growth of 15.5% between 2019 and 2024 “a value that is difficult to achieve” and points to a value of less than 10%.
CES’s position is set out in its opinion on the Major Options (GO) for 2022-2026, which Lusa had access to, and which was approved in that body’s plenary on Tuesday.
“Even if we admit that the government is forecasting growth that is higher than the generality of the known 2023 and 2024 forecasts, it is a difficult value to achieve given the history and existing estimates for 2022,” the CES emphasizes, referring to the government’s forecast in the GoOs of a growth of 15.5% between 2019 and 2024.
The ESC recalls that the European Commission’s summer forecast for Portugal pointed to growth of 6.5% in 2022 and 1.9% in 2023 and that the Finance Council (CFP) recently made progress with a forecast of 6.7 % for this and 1.2% for the next, raising the forecast for 2024 to 2.0%.
“With these figures, growth will be below 10% over the period in question,” estimates the council chaired by Francisco Assis.
Regarding the government’s forecast of the government debt reduction trajectory, which points to a value of close to 100% by 2026, the CES underlines that “the gradual reduction of the government debt-to-GDP ratio, targeting the sustainability of public finances is an important objective for the country”.
The organization also criticizes “the recurrent absence of the medium-term macroeconomic scenario” in the JUs, as it “prevents CES from properly evaluating the impact of the measures announced” and waters down the discussion “around merely loose indications that more than the GO’s are presented”.
As for European funds, the ESC emphasizes the “central role” funds have played in public policy, but warns that public authorities are “highly dependent on public funds – in particular the PRR [Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência] and PT2030”.
PT2020 represents about 90% of public investment, the highest value in the EU, limiting the political options for solving the country’s problems”, defends the ESC and recommends that “public investment should not depend so much on European funds, which should be complementary to the OE, and the state should provide the necessary credits so as not to jeopardize the investment objectives”.
The government is to present the macroeconomic scenario to the parties with parliamentary seats before the end of the week, before the proposal for the national budget 2023 (OE2023) is presented at the Assembly of the Republic on Monday, October 10.
The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has requested early disclosure of the macroeconomic scenario.
Source: DN
