Have the lessons of the pandemic not been learned? Despite the desire shown by the United States and the European Union (EU) to be less dependent on Chinese industry for their own supplies, China should see its share of global manufacturing jobs increase by 2050, according to a study by the Center for Development Global. (CGD) in Washington.
In less than 30 years, China will represent 43% of global industrial employment and will be one of the only countries that will see its industrial employment increase, while the global trend will be rather downward. After the Covid-19 pandemic and the first global lockdown, major Western economies felt that their dependence on Chinese industry posed a risk to their supply chains.
The rapid recovery of the economy post-lockdown and the observed supply bottlenecks, causing delays and price increases that fuel the wave of inflation still affecting the global economy, have led the EU and the United States to implement a strategy of “reducing industrial risks” against China.
Limit Chinese capabilities
This strategy aims, in particular, to return to the affected countries, or to countries considered politically closest, part of the production considered strategic until now carried out in China. The United States also wants to limit Chinese capabilities in the production of cutting-edge technologies, such as the microprocessors necessary for the development of artificial intelligence (AI), to stay ahead in this area.
But this approach should not translate into employment terms, according to the study, which points to a continued decline in the share of industrial employment in the workforce of advanced economies, which should drop from the current 11.4% to 8.3%. in the future. 2050. On the other side of the economic spectrum, the poorest countries are not expected to see a significant increase in the share of industrial employment, which is expected to remain stable over the next 30 years, with less than 8% of the population active in three decades.
In fact, these countries should move from a primarily agricultural economy to a service economy without actually undergoing a transition through the development of their industry, as has been observed in Western countries or in China and Japan in particular. “This does not mean that these countries will not be able to escape poverty,” warned Ranil Dissanayake, one of the authors of the study, quoted in a press release, “but knowing how to take advantage of it will require making the right decisions.” concerted policies and efforts. The study was carried out on the projections of 59 countries that represent more than 75% of the world’s GDP.
Source: BFM TV
