Europe opens its doors to Ukraine. On Wednesday, the European Commission gave the green light to start accession negotiations with Ukraine, pending formal approval at an EU summit in December. The road may be long for kyiv, but one day the country could join the club of Member States. But what would the EU be like if Ukraine joined today?
• Population
With 45 million inhabitants (according to official Ukrainian figures, which include the 2 million inhabitants of Crimea), Ukraine would be the fifth most populous country in the EU behind Spain (47 million inhabitants) and ahead of Poland (38 millions of inhabitants). The total population of the EU would increase by around 10%, exceeding 492 million inhabitants. Its capital and largest city, Kiev, would be one of the largest metropolises in the EU with 3 million inhabitants, at the level of Athens (3.5 million), Warsaw (3.1 million) or even Lisbon (2.7 million). ).
• Geography
This would be one of the most visible consequences of Ukraine’s accession: the EU would gain more than 600,000 square kilometers (again, counting Crimea). Its surface area would increase by around 14%, exceeding 4.8 million square kilometers. Ukraine would be the second EU country in terms of area, behind France; If we count only continental France, Ukraine would even be the largest country in European territory. Strict sense. Ukraine would also bring an additional exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to the Black Sea.
• Economy
This is the most difficult aspect to imagine, because the war has greatly undermined the Ukrainian economy. Before the war, Ukraine had a GDP of just over $200 billion in 2021 according to the World Bank, which would put it at the level of Greece (214 billion) or Hungary (181 billion). But Ukraine is very rich in mineral resources and stands out as a global grain giant, not to mention that part of its resources are located in the occupied Donbass. The country is also home to oil and gas pipelines, but they transport Russian gas.
However, Ukraine would be one of the poorest countries in the European Union. The country had a GDP per capita of around $4,835 in 2021 according to the World Bank, far behind Bulgaria ($12,221) and Romania ($14,858), currently at the bottom of the ranking. The average salary is also today much lower in Ukraine than elsewhere in the EU. Furthermore, membership would also mean, in the long term, the adoption of the single currency, but here too, even more than elsewhere, it is impossible to imagine entry into the eurozone at the moment.
• Budget
Ukraine’s entry into the European club would disrupt the European financing system. Ukraine, much poorer than all the current Member States, would monopolize a large part of the subsidies to the detriment of countries like Poland or the Czech Republic, in particular those from the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and those from the cohesion funds, intended for the most disadvantaged regions of the EU. Some countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, would become net contributors to the EU budget after having been beneficiaries of European funds since accession.
• Policy
Ukraine’s entry into the EU could alter the political balance within the EU, with the arrival of new elected officials and new political parties. The name of European députés pour chaque État membre depends on sa population: with 45 million d’habitants, l’Ukraine pourrait prétendre à une cinquantaine de députés européens si l’on se repose sur la répartition actuelle, soit autant que l’Espagne ou Poland. Ukraine could also claim a position as European commissioner. Furthermore, its accession would add a new official language, Ukrainian.
In the absence of institutional reforms, the arrival of a new Member State also means the arrival of a new right of veto: currently, all decisions are taken unanimously. The functioning of the institutions, already complicated today, would be even more so, especially because Ukraine is not the only one knocking on the door of the EU, which could reach 36 members in the more or less near future. The accession of Ukraine could favor the introduction of qualified majority, but the small EU countries are firmly opposed to this.
• Culture
For the EU, Ukraine’s accession would be a true enlargement towards Eastern Europe. The EU would be home to more than 37 million Ukrainian speakers, almost as many as Polish or Spanish, but also more than 8 million Russian speakers (if we count Crimea and Donbass), using the Cyrillic alphabet, which today is only found in Bulgaria. A religious rebalancing will also occur with the arrival of a new great Orthodox country. Furthermore, in case of accession to the EU, Ukrainian students could join the Erasmus exchange program.
Source: BFM TV
