Towards a status quo? The energy transition will not translate into massive job destruction or creation in France, according to an analytical note published this Wednesday by the Council for Economic Analysis (CAE), an expert body attached to Matignon.
To predict the effects of the decarbonization of the economy on employment, the four economists who authored the note modeled the effects of the introduction of a carbon tax of 100 euros per ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
Other energy sources
“This tax will have limited repercussions on employment in France” because “companies will undoubtedly adapt their energy consumption accordingly,” estimates the note. The carbon price will probably be harmonized at the European level and a carbon border adjustment mechanism (carbon border tax) will be established, the researchers further postulate.
In this way, companies will abandon energies that emit more CO2 in favor of other energy sources that emit less, which will allow them to “reduce the level of emissions without excessively reducing the quantities produced,” according to the note. However, the tax will result in a recession if its revenue is not redistributed in the form of tax cuts for households and reductions in social security contributions for businesses. In case of redistribution, the effect will be positive on growth (+0.3%).
“Job murder”?
The consequences on employment are similar, according to these models: without redistribution, 167,000 jobs will be destroyed between now and 2030, but with redistribution, 92,000 jobs will be created. “If the arguments in favor of “job elimination” are weak, we must also put into perspective the idea that the transition would massively create green jobs,” the researchers moderate. A green job is a job associated with an activity with low carbon intensity.
Economists point out that the differences in energy emissions between companies are greater within the same sector than between different sectors of the economy, which shows that less efficient companies have significant margins of progress. And as energy prices are expected to rise sustainably, businesses will be encouraged to reduce their consumption.
The researchers make several recommendations for a successful energy transition, including establishing a “dynamic floor price” for carbon of 150 euros per ton today and around 250 euros in 2030.
Source: BFM TV
