Medium mast births and deaths that increase. For the first time of this century, the balance of births and deaths is negative, as the economist in ofce François Geerolf in X.
“It happens faster than expected,” says François Geerolf, an economist of Ofce. Even the projections of a few months ago expected this investment by 2027 “. This negative balance already referred to Continental France, now includes territories abroad, which also experience a form of” denatality. “
A demographic shock for the previous previous one that goes back to 1945. “Even worse, if we exclude the war, this negative balance has not arrived since 1935. We are really witnessing a balancing in a new demographic regime,” alerts Maxime Sbaihi, economist, an expert associated with the Montaigne Institute that published “Les Balançoces Autids” Aux Editions of Lowatatoire.
A meeting on the subject even held last week in Elysée with the Head of State, as well as the ministers, Aurore Bergé and Catherine Vautrin. Because the subject worries the Executive at least as much as that of public accounts.
Structural fall of births
Is this new passing just imbalance? “We have to worry about it, it is a global trend, observes Julien Damon, essayist and specialist in demographic and social questions. There has been an acceleration of the trend for some years because the INSEE provided this reversal by 2035, so we are in advance.”
Previously more cyclical and correlated with economic crises according to the analysis of François Geerolf (fall in the birth rate during the great depression or the oil clash), the denatality is no longer a cyclical danger. It is this phenomenon of birth collapse (almost -20% compared to 2010) that nothing seems to be able to stop. Much more than the increase in the number of deaths on the cohort of Baby Boomers that have become “grandfather.” Dénatality is now a deeply installed phenomenon in French society.
End of the French demographic exception
France, which for a long time has been an exception in the EU, with its fertility index for a superior woman has ended.
“The EU-27 has a negative natural balance, with” champion “of the Germans. France thus enters an aging regime, characterized by a weak birth rate and a high life expectancy,” complete. In fact, for women it reached 85.6 years, third in the EU and for men 80 years. The probability that the trend is reversed is almost zero.
What economic repercussions of such demographic deceleration? In the short term, an evolution of France in consumption with a drop in demand, putting the market for children’s milks, nipples or diapers for babies at risk. But beyond that, the consequences give vertigo.
Decrease in active population and the number of taxpayers
“Dignity when it lasts is less arm and less brain to convert the economy,” summarizes Maxime Sbaihi. Less children, of course, are less children by classes and, therefore, threatened schools.
“For ten years we already have 500,000 less schools and 5,000 schools that have closed, even in the city center,” added the economist. And less children are also less students.
Insee had already documented the decrease in the active population: in moderate growth until 2040, it would begin to decrease from this date to be around 29.2 million in 2070. This withdrawal could intervene even before 2036 in certain regions.
Sanctified our social protection system
And a decrease in the general activity rate implies a decrease in the contributions received. The volume of our social expenses is weighted by two heavy positions, old age and health that represent almost 50% of the annual services each.
“In both cases, it is a distribution system. Assets contribute to inactive and healthy contribution to patients,” recalls Julien Damon. The less active ingredients that contribute it, therefore, less funds are perceived for more pensioners who live more. An equation impossible to solve with the current parameters.
“It is our entire social model that collapses, anticipates Maxime Sbaihi. In the postwar period, we had put everything in demography and our distribution system took the form of a pyramid. Today this pyramid narrows in its base due to the denatality and continues to expand from above. Intergenerational solidarity is increasingly heavy.”
We can also be interested in financing the dependency that is put at risk. The dependency illustrates the difficulties related to the aging of the population and the denatality. More dependent people, less active to pay social benefits and less labor to help them daily.
What public policies?
Without relaunching the birth rate on the horizon, despite the published voluntarism of the government that cannot go so far as to order births, what possible adaptation of public policies?
It is difficult to further increase contributions that already reaches 28% of the gross salary. “An easy answer is immigration, even if it is likely to deprive countries in the development of weapons and brains,” says Julien Damon. For him he prefers to have to play at the activity rate.
Maxime Sbaihi summarizes: “Three solutions. Baby, immigration or robots. Japan has chosen this path and you have to see what state its economy is.”
Source: BFM TV
