Taken by a strong increase in its exports and a high level of investment and consumption, the Spanish economy confirmed its dynamism in the second quarter, despite the climate of uncertainty caused by the increase in American customs tasks.
According to a provisional estimate published on Tuesday published on Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Gross Spanish Internal Product (GDP) increased by 0.7% between April and June, 0.1 points more than in the previous quarter (0.6%).
This figure is greater than the expectations of the Spanish bank, which provided for a growth between 0.5% and 0.6%. Confirms the dynamism of the fourth economy in the euro zone, which has chained eight consecutive rooms with an increase in GDP of more than 0.6%.
According to the INE, growth has been established in recent months by exports, which have increased by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, despite the effects of the commercial war launched by the increase in US customs tasks.
It was also driven by business investment, which increased 2.1%, with a strong increase in the construction sector, and by household consumption, which increased 0.8%, after rising by 0.6%between January and March.
2.8% annualized growth
In the annualized rhythm, Spanish growth has increased by 2.8%. A dynamic that places Spain in a comfortable position to achieve the growth of 2.6% expected throughout the year 2025 by the government of the socialist prime minister Pedro Sánchez.
Next, the rest of the EU is a pale figure. In May, the European Commission had clearly reduced its Growth forecasts for this year and the next in the euro zone. Brussels executive tables are an annual growth of 0.9% in the EU, including 0% for Germany and 0.6% for France.
The Spanish economy remains a “locomotive in the euro zone, and compensates for low growth in several other European economies, such as Germany or France,” emphasizes Pedro Aznar, economy professor at the ESADE Business School.
According to the INE, Spanish growth has allowed the number of employment applicants to retire strongly in recent months: the unemployment rate has decreased to 10.29% of the population at the end of June, its lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008.
The fall in unemployment, transported by a large number of employment creations, should continue in the next quarters, according to the Executive. “We always have an unemployment rate too high,” especially “for young people”, but “we are going in the right direction,” Carlos body said.
According to the Spanish bank, Spanish growth is expected to reach 2.4% this year. This prognosis is close to the International Monetary Fund, which reviewed its expectations at 2.5% (+0.2 points) in mid -April, despite the increase in customs tasks decided by Donald Trump.
Weak exposure
The impact on the growth of this commercial confrontation, which led to an agreement around a 15% tax on Sunday on European products exported to the United States, should not be “significant” in 2025, had assured Carlos body in mid -June.
The exhibition of Spain is in fact “low compared to several of our European partners, because only 5% of Spanish exports are to the United States,” said the minister, who however had requested caution, due to the “indirect effects” of this commercial conflict.
“The customs tasks of 15%, although 30%vigorizers” a time mentioned by Donald Trump, “will have an effect” in the Spanish economy, abounds in Pedro Aznar, for whom “geopolitical uncertainty generates volatility in markets that can also affect the real economy.”
According to the Spanish Bank, Spain exported last year for 16.2 billion goods in the United States, its sixth commercial partner. A lower level than its imports from this country, which reached 26.8 billion euros.
Source: BFM TV
