The global economy seems to show signs of solidity despite the uncertainty generated by the customs duties desired by US President Donald Trump, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which, however, is still waiting for a slowdown of the activity on Tuesday, July 29.
According to the latest update of the Annual World Economics (Weo) report of the Washington institution, global growth is expected to reach 3.0%, an upward revised rate compared to the last publication in April (+0.2 points) but still below the growth observed in 2024 (3.3%).
The anticipation of the surcharge “supported economic activity”
“The commotion caused by customs tasks seems to be less violently than what we anticipate in April,” said Fund Funds collector Pierre-Loivier Gourchas, partly “due to the breaks announced and certain signed agreements.”
The customs tasks applied to the products that enter the United States are on average, at the time of publication of the report, of 17%, according to the fund, an estimate close to the Laboratory Budget of the University of Yale (17.5%), which makes it the highest at least since the 1930s.
But the anticipation of the companies of these surcharges “supported economic activity” because “they constituted actions before (their) entry into force”, even if “this will have consequences” in future growth, warned the gourinchas of Pierre-Olivier. “What you already have in stock, will not need to get it later in the year or next year.”
The improvement observed concerns about all emerging countries, whose growth should be on average 0.4 point higher than during the previous estimate, with only +0.1 points for advanced savings.
This is particularly the case of the United States, now expected in 1.9% (+0.1 points), a mass brake race compared to 2024 (+2.8%), particularly due to inflation that begins to “show signs of taking customs tasks,” he said to Pierre-Loivier Gourchas.
European growth a little better than expected
At European level, if the euro zone should do it a little better this year than expected in April, 1% (+0.2pp), it will not be thanks to its main savings.
The forecasts for France and Spain do not change, with respectively +0.6% and +2.5%, when only +0.1pp are reviewed for Germany, which should avoid the recession this year little (growth of 0.1%), and Italy, which always revolves with restlessness (0.5% growth).
On the contrary, the forecasts for China are checked strongly (+0.8pp), to return to a level closer to what was achieved in 2024 (5% then, 4.8% expected by 2025). This translates in particular “the constitution of the actions” of Chinese products, especially in the United States, according to the IMF economist.
China still remains “confronted with opposite winds,” says Pierre-Olivier Gorchas, with a “domestic demand that is still quite weak, a confidence of dim consumers and a real estate sector that still represents the black point of the Chinese economy, which will weigh in growth both in 2025 and 2026”.
Mexico also sees its revised growth (+0.5pp) and should be able to avoid recession, despite exports widely affected by customs duties. The United States is its first commercial partner.
The only exception among emerging countries: Russian growth is widely reviewed down (-0.6pp) and is expected to be less than 1% (0.9%) in 2025, far from 4.3% reached in 2024. This is explained by “the fall in oil prices”, the effects of a restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation and public spending down.
Source: BFM TV
