A decline in China’s growth prospects for 2022 and 2023 is now “highly likely,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview with AFP on Tuesday, saying the change in covid policy will initially create “Some difficulties”.
“It is very likely that we will lower our growth forecast for China, both for 2022 and for 2023. The restrictions linked to Covid have been a drag on growth but now the easing will create some difficulties in the coming months”, detailed the pattern. of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In publishing its annual report, the IMF estimated China’s growth for 2022 at 3.2% before rising to 4.4% in 2023.
With an additional impact on global growth, already hit by the slowdown in Europe and the United States, which should be “expected by 2023 below 2.7%”, the level forecast when the IMF global report was published. “Back then, we were looking at a 25% chance of seeing global growth of 2% or less, now you can be sure that chance has increased.”
“Restore the health system”
But if the Fund has warned several times about the economic consequences of China’s zero covid policy, the end of the latter will necessarily lead to “an increase in the number of infections with consequences for the proper functioning of the economy,” Kystalina added. Georgiava. .
Especially since the country must “recalibrate its covid policy in various ways: more focused restrictions, an intensive vaccination campaign, especially aimed at the elderly, and the use of antiviral treatments. In other words, it is about rearming the health system towards treatment.” instead of isolation,” insisted Kristalina Georgieva.
The managing director of the IMF, however, was optimistic about the future, anticipating that “China will come out of it in the second half of 2023 and then there should be an improvement in growth.”
Source: BFM TV
