The government on Monday revised its growth forecast for Portugal’s economy this year upwards to 1.8%, slightly above October’s 1.3% forecast, the finance minister announced today.
The macroeconomic scenario of the Stability Program for the period 2023-2027, which the government is sending to the European Commission and the Assembly of the Republic, presented today in Lisbon, points to a growth of 1.8% in gross domestic product ( GDP), This means an improvement compared to the October forecast, which forms the basis of the National Budget 2023 (OE2023).
Watch the presentation of the Stability Program here:
The forecast is similar to the 1.8% indicated by the Bank of Portugal (BdP), which is higher than the 1.2% indicated by the Public Finance Council (CFP) and the 1% indicated by the European Commission , the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Affairs. Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Cabinet reduces deficit to 0.4% this year
The government also forecasts that the budget deficit will reach 0.4% this year, less than the 0.9% included in the state budget, the finance minister announced.
The EP macroeconomic scenario for the period 2023-2027 thus improves the forecast for the deficit, after a better-than-expected result in 2022.
The government forecasts that the deficit will be equal to the 0.4% recorded in 2022, matching the 0.9% forecast included in the state budget for 2023 (OE2023), submitted in October.
The update of the government’s macroeconomic scenario is in line with this year’s projections from the Public Finance Council (CFP) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development of a 0.6% deficit and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). ) of 1.2%.
Executive revises high inflation this year to 5.1%
The inflation rate will fall to 5.1% this year, above the 4% forecast in October, before falling to 2.9% in 2024, the government also predicts in the stability program.
The EP’s macroeconomic scenario for the period 2023-2027 envisages a downward trajectory for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
However, the 5.1% for this year represents an upward revision from the 4% forecast in October in the state budget for 2023 (SB2023), and compared to the 5.5% indicated by the Bank of Portugal (BdP) and the 5.9% by the Council for Public Finances (GVB).
Among the major international economic institutions, the European Commission forecasts a percentage of 5.4%, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 5.7% and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 6.6%.
The Stability Program will be discussed in parliament on 26 April.
Updated
Source: DN
