ISEG economists have revised upwards growth forecasts for the Portuguese economy for this year from 1.6% to a range of 2.1% to 2.9%, with a central estimate of 2.5%, the Síntese de Conjuntura said. which was announced on Tuesday.
“Taking into account the growth registered in the first quarter and the most likely evolution for the coming quarters, the forecast for the growth of the Portuguese economy in 2023, previously set at values around 1.6%, is revised to the estimated interval between 2.1% to 2.9%, of which the median value is 2.5”.promotes the Economic Analysis Group of ISEG — Lisbon School of Economics & Management.
ISEG economists note that “simply maintaining activity at the level” of the first quarter, i.e. even without any chain growth until the end of the year, “would be enough to sustain an annual growth rate of 2.1 % to be insured by 2023”.
However, given the existence of some growth in the euro area, judging by a slightly more optimistic economic environment and forecasts, it becomes likely that the Portuguese economy will grow above the stated 2.1%.
After growing almost exclusively based on net external demand (PEL) during the first quarter, ISEG expects that, “Growth in IP by the end of the year [procura interna] will make a greater contribution, namely from the side of investments”.
At the same time, “it will make sense for the PEL’s contribution to decrease as external tourist demand normalises”.
According to the institution, the trend indicator of global activity is “slowing down along with the normalization of economic activity in the post-pandemic period”, and “should now be on a more stable path, albeit in relation to the new circumstances of economic activity in the EU [União Europeia]”.
Among these, ISEG highlights “inflation, rising interest rates and uncertainty related to the conflict in Ukraine”, since “the evolution of these factors will partly determine a more or less favorable evolution for the growth of the Portuguese economy in 2023” .
“In the first quarter, however, as already noted, this evolution was relatively favorable and leads to higher expectations for the full year”he adds.
In the note released this Tuesday, ISEG reminds that in the first quarter of 2023, according to the preliminary/rapid estimate of the National Institute of Statistics (INE), Portugal’s gross domestic product (GDP) in volume increased by 2, 5 has grown. % on an annual basis and 1.6% on the previous quarter.
“This growth was slightly higher than the estimate in the previous report, although INE’s qualitative reasons coincide, and compares favorably with the Eurozone growth (0.1% in chain and 1.3% in homologous terms)”refers.
ISEG also recalls that “In April, the economic climate indicator grew in Portugal, which has been happening since November” and that “confidence in the manufacturing sector only decreased due to sectors”.
“Consumer confidence also rose in April, which has been observed at a slower pace since December,” he says, adding that “in the eurozone, the economic sentiment indicator has been relatively stagnant since January, following a recovery at the end of last year.”while “consumer confidence rose in April”.
Source: DN
