France is aging. In a press release published this Thursday, December 5, the Directorate of Research, Studies, Evaluation and Statistics (DREES) reveals the conclusions of its study on the possible trajectories of the number of active nurses. According to the government statistics service, the number of nurses will increase significantly between now and 2050, but less than the care needs of the aging population.
The number of employed nurses would increase by 37% between 2021 and 2050, reaching 821,000 in 2050. Until then, the number of inhabitants in France would increase less rapidly than the number of nurses, but the proportion of older people would be higher.
Under the hypothesis that the consumption of nursing care by age group remained constant, the needs for nursing care would increase by 50% between 2021 and 2050. The increase in needs would, therefore, be greater than that in the number of nurses: 80,000 additional nurses would be needed in 2050 compared to this projection to ensure the same coverage of care needs as today.
While the number of nurses has grown faster than the population during this same period, the proportion of older people, who consume the majority of nursing care, has also seen a sharp increase. In doing so, the need for nursing care increased faster than the number of nurses and the coverage of nursing care needs decreased.
What levers?
Furthermore, according to DREES projections, the average age of nurses, 41 years, would remain almost stable between 2021 and 2050. The proportion of nurses aged 60 or older would increase by one point during the period, as the proportion of those under 25 years of age (from 6% to 7%, for each of these age groups).
To increase the number of nurses, the main lever would be to increase the number of qualified people. In total, 32,900 would be needed each year, compared to the 29,000 expected in the trend scenario and the 25,000 on average between 2013 and 2021.
The current care provision could be maintained with a sustainable 14% increase in the number of training places, or by halving the “loss rate” of students during training, which is increasing considerably in recent times.
Another lever would be to improve the attractiveness of the profession. This would allow enrollment rates in training schools to be kept as high as they are today, even in the case of a sharp increase in open places. This could also help reduce loss rates during training.
In addition, better working conditions could lead to limiting layoffs during or at the end of a career.
Source: BFM TV
