The row began to take shape at the end of August 2021, on the eve of the September 26 municipal elections. Antonio Costa, in an interview with Emphaticallyleft the motto on August 20: “The only swamp in sight is the swamp on the right, fragmented, without leadership, without proposals for the country.”

Three days later, José Luís Carneiro, then deputy secretary-general of the PS, reinforced the lack of “proposals for the country” with the embryonic version of “small matters”: “No one in the country knows about the proposals of the PSD […] While the government struggled to secure our living conditions in Portugal and abroad, the opposition sought petty cases here and there to weaken the prime minister and the government.”

The addition was a new version of “small business”, recreated to the effect that “the opposition only wants to discuss fait divers, business and small business” – “We will not go into the details of hours and hours” was the version to be rejected contradictions in the Galambagate case – and the reframing of the idea of ​​lack of proposals, now arguing that the PSD is “running away from debating the country’s fundamental problems” and “running away from presenting alternatives to the proposed solutions of the PS”. “If it’s serious,” says Costa, “who has solutions for the country” are the socialists.

PSD bills [os dados são até 28 de junho] are simple to make: of the 113 “proposals for the country” submitted to parliament, 71 were rejected. Only the PS rejected almost 90% of the Social Democrats’ initiatives. The rest are generally dropped by the old “device”.

From the social emergency package, in response to the inflationary crisis, which provided for a reduction of VAT on energy to the minimum rate (6%), a reduction of the IRS to the fourth, fifth and sixth levels and financial support lines for PME and IPSS worth 250 million euros, all of which have failed systematically.

The extensive list includes, among others, the proposal for a debt settlement program for social purposes, compensation measures to remedy procedural delays, measures to support the agricultural sector in the consequences of the 2023 drought, the strengthening of home support, the review of the remuneration system of the soldiers of the Armed Forces, a program to strengthen the storage capacity of the reservoirs and increase public water resources, increased coverage of the number of students benefiting from the School Social Action and the reduction of bureaucracy in its mission.

The most recent clue was the rejection of the Social Democratic health and housing proposals, the path was similar. Incidentally, in the OE-2023, for example, the PS only approved a PSD proposal. “It is yet another proof of the steamroller of the absolute majority. A majority that does not do it and does not allow it. That confuses majority with absolute power,” says the PSD party chairman.

For Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, “this is the most important sign left by the socialist majority at the end of this legislature. A sign that is becoming increasingly clear to all Portuguese”. But not only that. It is also, he believes, “a way of doing politics of I will, I can and I command, which takes us to other times of bad memory of most of the bankruptcy of José Sócrates”.

“The socialist arrogance,” he continues, is also “in the way it tries to diminish the parliamentary function of overseeing the government’s actions, by preventing members of the government from reporting to the deputies where possible. “. And the “cumulus” was “a kind of parallel reality” that the PS presented in the conclusions of the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry to TAP, “which the country and no deputy saw or heard dared to disqualify”.

The conclusion of the parliamentary leader of the PSD is simple: “The PS is more focused on being an opposition than on solving the real problems of the country and the people. It proclaims to the four corners of the world that the PSD has no alternatives, but then systematically failed their proposals”.

The collage between the absolute majorities of Costa and Sócrates is starting to become clear in the discourse of the PSD. Hugo Soares, Secretary General, also believes that “the story of the absence of alternative proposals” referred to his party is no more than a tactic “in the old Socratic way, in a mixture of litany and childish denial “. What is missing from most PSD proposals? The quantification of costs and what share they would have in the OE.

the marathon

Despite not yet being an “alternative”, as Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has said several times, or because it does not have “proposals for the country”, as the PS “roll of steel” claims, “the truth”, the party insists , is that “in less than a year the PSD recovered about 10 points in the polls”. “After winning the absolute majority of the PS about a year and a half ago, with a lead of almost 14 points, today the PSD is technically tied in the polls (around 30%) and already leading several polls. “, emphasize the social Democrats.

In the ICS/ISCTE study for the SIC and ExpressoFor example, it can be seen that the reversal in the government’s positive assessment started in March last year and is now at the highest values ​​since this assessment began to be made – February 2019. Data that coincides with the assessment of the economy: 66% say it has gotten worse or much worse. And in this case, the turnaround started earlier: in September 2019. Scenarios confirmed in the latest Aximage survey for DN/TSF/JN: the PSD surpasses the PS and the right already has more electoral weight than the left.

Another relevant fact: the study, with more than two thousand interviews, by the Research Center of the Institute of Political Studies (CIEP-UCP) and the Polling Center (CESOP-UCP), released by the Observer, places the PSD with “a two up to three points ahead of the PS” and identifies “greater levels of dissatisfaction among the electorate that voted for PS than among the other parties”.

And when it comes to coalitions, the PSD found that “any pre-election coalition on the right at this point would very likely have a negative net effect for the parties involved”, which alone “has greater potential to attract votes “, which presents a “potential appeal of the PS voters of the order of 30%” and that, if it won the election and needed a partner, IL would be the candidate that comes out as the most “positive” considered. If it was Chega, the rejection rate is very high: around 90%.

The study points to three conclusions: “The PSD has a substantially higher potential for electoral growth per se than in any coalition scenario”, “there is a strong rejection of the electorate (including the electorate inclined to vote PSD) in related to a scenario agreement with Chega” and that, with “a substantial part of the right-wing electorate potentially fluctuating between PSD and Chega, much of the future of the PSD (and the future configuration of the Portuguese right-wing party space) can depend on the party’s ability to compete successfully for the electorate contested by Chega” while capturing “electorate dissatisfied with the PS”.

Montenegro has recently considered that there is “a very swampy political situation in Portugal” and that “worse than having a bad government is a bad government that thinks it’s good, that thinks everything is fine”. Therefore, the Social Democratic leader includes Passos Coelho, Cavaco, Barroso, Balsemão, Santana Lopes (sometimes) and “people associated with companies, academia, even ideological friends from other political fields”, in addition to the usual of the permanent committee , and already preparing a government “for the time being”, because “there could be a break in this marathon [fala de 2026] and you have to be prepared, model things so that there are no surprises”.

public policy

Examples of the “main proposals” of the PSD that were not accepted by the socialists.

Social emergency program

Creating support for families (middle and lower classes) and businesses to cope with the rise in the cost of living, funded by an extraordinary tax debt settlement program.

IRS reduction

Lower the IRS for lower-income people and for the middle class to the sixth rung.

IRC reduction

Reduce the corporate tax rate in steps by 4 percentage points: from 21% to 19% in the first year and from 19% to 17% in the second year.

Doctor for everyone

In the transition phase to universal coverage, ensure access to a treating physician for all, if necessary, by using contracts or additional partnerships with the social and private sectors.

Universalization of nurseries

Strengthen funds to ensure the universalization of day care centers for all children, regardless of the ownership regime of the institution (public, social and private sector).

Housing

Accelerate and streamline permitting for new construction and renovation (tacit approval regime for all operations subject to prior permitting). Eliminate IMT, stamp duty, AIMI, IMI and property tax, and VAT at a rate of 6% on construction and rehabilitation works and services. Use of vacant or underused state property.

Program to attract, welcome and integrate immigrants

Universal and transversal program to attract, integrate and retain immigrants or the return of Portuguese from abroad.

Amendment of the Informal Carers Statute

Change the current requirements – which imply that you must be a relative of the elderly person and live with them to obtain the status – so that they are no longer cumulative.

Expand shared jobs in social comments

Expand the network of private sector co-financed beds where there is not an adequate public or societal response.

Council for Territorial and Generational Cohesion

Ensure equal representation of the different regions of the territory and generations, with advisory powers to express an opinion on draft laws or decrees in matters that may affect their interests (constitutional review).

Strengthening the territorial dimension (particularly of low-density areas) in the political process

Definition of constituencies for the AR that combines population proportionality with territorial dimension (constitutional revision).

vcar from 16 years and electronic voting

Changing the legal age to exercise the right to vote from 18 to 16; implementation of electronic voting, on the national territory, in all election acts and referenda (constitutional revision).

Strengthening the independence and impartiality of judicial and regulatory institutions

Appointment by the President of the Republic of the PGR, the President of the TdC and the Governor of the BdP, as well as the presidents of the regulatory entities (constitutional revision).

Young Tax Office

For young people up to the age of 35, apply a maximum IRS rate of 15% (excluding the last bracket of income tax).