Even if he wanted to – and he has said he doesn’t want to – today the President of the Republic will leave the hearings in Belém of the four largest parties without any margin to kick off a process leading to early elections .
Since she apparently has no support from the PS majority for this, the truth is that the largest opposition party, the PSD, is not (yet) ready either.
Luís Montenegro, president of the PSD, has not spared himself in criticizing the government and António Costa, but knows that the party has nothing to gain from a scenario of short-term instability. Polls show a gradual rise of his party, but the PSD is still not in a position of clear and consistent electoral advantage over the PS.
The best that electoral studies indicate, from a social-democratic perspective, is for a tie situation with the PS. Because it is not enough, it is already progress, because in the last parliamentary elections, in January 2022, the PSD lost to the PS with a deficit of 13.7 percentage points (41.37% against 27.67%), that is that she received 762,700 fewer votes than the Socialists.
In the interest of the PSD, it will therefore be more convenient for the PS to continue – on its own, without anyone from the outside doing anything for it – through the continuous wear and tear process, which has been translated, for example, into the abnormal number of government reshuffles since its (13 in 15 months). What the polls say for now is that the absolute majority that the PS achieved in January 2022 was “the soil that gave grapes”.
And there are several statements from Luís Montenegro assuring that the party does not want early elections for the time being.
Last May, during a press conference at the party’s national headquarters – the day after António Costa challenged Marcelo by keeping João Galamba in government – the PSD president ascertained the party’s official thinking on the matter: “We ask not about them [eleições antecipadas], but I also tell you: we will not refuse them. Yes, we are prepared for whatever it takes.”
Asked about the possibility of a motion of censure – which Chega said he will table in September, when the second legislature starts – Montenegro kicked the corner: “It would be a burden for the PS. The factor of instability is the PS , it is not the biggest request from the opposition.”
In other words, it also said: “In a flash, a prime minister who filled his mouth with the word and the value of stability rehearsed a flight ahead to see if he provoked an early election. The prime minister is incapable of reform, renewal or simply renew his government and see only one way out of the chaos into which the executive has plunged: try to provoke an early election without having the courage to say so. […] Without any program, without any motivation, the Prime Minister is resorting to a palace war and wants to dissolve his leadership and political authority himself, plunging the country into an institutional conflict.”
Today, the president will receive delegations from the PS, PSD, Chega and Iniciativa Liberal in Belém – after receiving Friday Livre, PAN, BE and PCP (all of whom demanded that Costa and the PS engage more in dialogue with the opposition).
On the right of the PSD, IL and Chega are more categorical in their defense of early elections, with Chega even promising a vote of censure in September. Together, however, they are only worth 20 of the 230 deputies, insufficient weight for the President of the Republic to seriously consider a scenario of early elections at short notice.
Marcelo, for his part, promised after the “Galamba episode” a “more attentive” judiciary, in which the meeting of the Council of State that he organized fits.
While it has put the issue of the AR’s dissolution on its agenda, it has also maintained that, at least this year, this is a distant scenario, citing the need for no interruptions are in the application of the PRR (Plano of recovery and resilience).
In May, after explicitly stating his disagreement with keeping João Galamba in government, he said the Portuguese “don’t need these surprises”. [dissolução do Parlamento e convocação de eleições antecipadas] at a time like this, when they want the rulers to solve the problems.” “Don’t count on me to create these conflicts,” he assured. At the same time, he put pressure on the government by saying that “despite some economy and support to families and businesses, these have not yet reached the Portuguese, who expect and need more and better”, who demand from the government “capacity, reliability, credibility and authority”. “What is legitimate to ask is that the government governs faster and better and without unnecessary tension,” he had said a month earlier (April).
Source: DN
