For Rui Rocha, Paulo Raimundo and Mariana Mortágua, this will be the first return of the rest of their lives. A year ago none of the three led their respective parties (Liberal Initiative, PCP and Left Bloc). Now they are preparing to make their debut as keynote speakers in party sessions that will mark the beginning of a new political year. If nothing unforeseen happens, they will be the leaders of the IL, PCP and BE in the upcoming national election battle: European elections in June next year; municipalities in October 2024; and legislated in 2026. Rui Rocha’s rentrées debut will take place this Saturday night.
The Liberal Initiative Party was called to one of the Algarve’s havens for the middle class and urban deregulation, Armação de Pêra, in the municipality of Silves. The party communication states that there will be live music, entertainment and outdoor dining in the city’s fortress, all under the motto “the alternative is liberal”. Rui Rocha had planned his speech for 9.45 pm, but brought it forward to 9.10 pm due to football (1st round in the national championship, with Sporting-Vizela at 8.30 pm). With the country starting to discuss the state budget for 2024 in two months, IL will try to focus its speech on the idea of cutting taxes, both for people (IRS) and businesses (IRC). The Liberals claim in the promotional materials for this party – which they called “The Taste of Freedom” – that this push will take place “at a time when the tax burden is reaching consecutive records.” a “steel roller”: “The result of the investigation of the TAP trial is a controlled report without any accountability” and “political impunity and the deterioration of public services and institutions became widespread”.
Rocha won the leadership of IL against the candidacy of deputy Carla Castro last January after João Cotrim Figueiredo unexpectedly decided to resign. This had taken the party from one elected deputy (himself) to eight deputies (4.88% of the vote) in the 2022 parliamentary election. Last February, Católica made the first poll to be published after Rocha’s rise to power. At that time, IL already registered 8% of voting intentions. But in the most recent survey on the ERC website, from Aximage to DN, TSF and JN, last July, these voting intentions had dropped to 5.2%. In other words, Rocha seems to be having trouble standing up for herself.
With Paulo Raimundo becoming the leader of the PCP in November 2022, the first moment, poll-wise, has been very encouraging.
The Communists were about 2.5% (they had 4.3% in the January legislature of that year) rising to 5.4% in the first study (by Intercampus, in this case) published after Raimundo Jerónimo de Sousa succeeded. In the Aximage barometer published last July, the PCP had fallen again to 3.2%. Unsurprisingly, the PCP has once again taken a pro-Russian stance in the face of the war in Ukraine (in April, the AR session with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky was absent, who accused him of being “the personification belongs to a xenophobic and warlike power, surrounded and supported by fascist and neo-Nazi forces”. committed atrocities against the people of Ukraine and Poland”, so in a context of difficulties to claim that Paulo Raimundo will occupy the main place on the stage of 25 April of the next “Avante!” Festival.
Of the newcomers in the returns, it is Mariana Mortágua who has led a party for the shortest time. It was last May that the party chose her to replace Catarina Martins – replacement in continuity and perfectly logical given the electoral defeat of the BE in the last legislature (it went from 19 elected deputies to five).
When Mariana succeeded Catarina, Intercampus collected information for the barometer she released in June. At that time BE registered 9.3% of voting intentions (in the parliamentary elections of January 2022 it was 4.4%). According to Aximage, the intentions now point to 8% of the vote. In other words, Mariana Mortágua didn’t raise BE, but she didn’t lose much either. As, in the context of the new leaders, the one with the greatest public exposure, Mariana Mortágua has one more month to prepare for the BE return.
Chronology
This Saturday
The Liberal Initiative is organizing tonight the third edition of the party “A “taste of Freedom”, in the fortress of Armação de Pêra (Silves). The new leader, Rui Rocha, elected on January 22 to succeed João Cotrim Figueiredo, will the main speaker.
August 14
The PSD organizes its Festa do Pontal with a dinner meeting on the promenade in Quarteira, in the municipality of Loulé. It will be Luís Montenegro’s 2nd comeback as leader of the PSD. Carlos Moedas will be the special guest (this year it was Pedro Passos Coelho).
August 24
Chega will organize her return with a dinner rally in Lagos.
September 3
The 47th edition of the PCP’s Avante! Paulo Raimundo becomes one of the new leaders in the returns.
September 10 (1)
The PS abandoned the Algarve rally model and used the “Socialist Academy”, a copy of the PSD’s summer university. This year it will take place from 6 to 10 September in Évora. Costa speaks at the closing.
September 10 (2)
From September 8 to 10, the “Forum Socialismo” will take place in Viseu, the traditional event in which the political stance of the Left Bloc resumes. The initiative will end with the debut of a new leader in returns, that of Mariana Mortágua.
September 10 (3)
The Free Party will once again organize “Os Setembristas” in Setúbal between September 9 and 10, an initiative “for the debate of ideas” and which “aims to cross perspectives, which is intended to enrich members and supporters” .
2nd week Sept
The PAN is the only one of the eight parties with a parliamentary seat that does not have a fixed rent. All the party leadership says is that it will take place in the second week of September, somewhere in the Lisbon district.
Source: DN
