The PSD (24.9%) loses points to other right-wing parties, the scenario predicted by the latest Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF. Which also shows a PS (28.6%) that, without leaving the site, stands out again in first place. The social-democratic vulnerability is being exploited by Chega (14.6%), with no rival for third place, and by the Liberal Initiative (6.7%), which is now only a few tenths behind the Bloco de Esquerda ( 7.1%). Next are PAN (4.8%), which remains ahead of CDU (3.8%), Livre (2.9%) and CDS (1.6%).
If there were elections today, and if the results of the polls confirmed these results, the Socialists would win a Pyrrhic victory: because the parliamentary majority would be within the reach of the group of parties that are more right, with a total of 47, 8 points, and not from the parties that are more left, which would be 42.4 points. Even joining the PAN with some kind of ‘popular front’ would be insufficient (in percentage terms) to guarantee a majority for a socialist-led government.
What would be the alternative?
If a fourth consecutive PS government seems like a mirage in this scenario, what chance would the PSD have of providing a solid alternative? Maintaining the guarantees of the current leader, Luís Montenegro, that there will be no social democratic government dependent on Chega, there would be none: the right-wing bloc, with the CDS (which is currently outside parliament), but without Chega it would add just under 33.2 percentage points. If we redo the calculation and add the PAN (as happened in Madeira, however), it would be 38 points, again insufficient to defeat the left group.
Scenarios aside, this survey once again shows the weaknesses of the PSD (and its president, Luís Montenegro, devastated in his assessment of the party leaders), both when comparing it with last July’s survey (the party loses almost three points ), and when it is based on the results of the last parliamentary elections (it loses just over four points).
Records to the right of the PSD
On the contrary, Chega’s growing strength is clear. André Ventura’s party would now have double the number of votes it obtained in January 2022. Moreover, when analyzing the different segments of the sample, it becomes clear that the right-wing radicals are no longer limited to the last place on the podium: among the residents of the South region and the Islands are in second place, ahead of the PSD; and among voters between 35 and 49 years old, in first place, if only by a tenth of a lead over the PS (note that, given the small size of these segments, the ‘margin of error’ is much higher than 3 .5% of the total sample).
Another fact worth highlighting, which proves the current vulnerability of the PSD, is that the sum of Chega and Liberal Initiative currently exceeds 21 percentage points, a scenario never before seen in the parliamentary banks, nor on the right side of social media. Democrats (the maximum was 16% for the CDS in 1976), nor for the left of the PS (the maximum was 18.8% for the APU, the communist coalition of 1979). Rui Rocha’s Liberals are growing, both compared to the July survey and compared to the last parliamentary elections (almost two points).
Socialist regularity
If we analyze the PS results in the four studies that Aximage has already conducted this year for DN, JN and TSF, the regularity is clear: never below 27 points, never above 29. That was enough to take first place in April to lose, but also to now guarantee an almost four-point lead over the Social Democrats. But the news is not so good if a comparison is made with the last parliamentary elections, in which the country won an absolute majority: it lost more than twelve points.
On your left, the scenarios are different. The Left Bloc, despite falling by one point compared to July (when Mariana Mortágua was a new leader), is almost three points higher than what it polled in January 2002. The PCP (or its electoral brand, the CDU) Paulo Raimundo is struggling with 3.8%, better than in July, worse than in the parliamentary elections. And finally, the Livre of Rui Tavares would duplicate the result of the last elections.
Between the two blocks is the PAN, which, with Inês Sousa Real at the helm, seems to be catching its breath. If the elections were held now, they would be more than three points above the previous parliamentary elections.
Party leaders all in red
Portugal’s rating of nine party leaders is devastating: all register negative balances (difference between positive and negative ratings) this October, according to the Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF. The largest decline compared to last July is that of Mariana Mortágua (BE). But the most important is that of Luís Montenegro (PSD), who is now only behind Paulo Raimundo (PCP) in rejecting the Portuguese.
This time, the vote forecast for the PSD is in line with its leader’s assessment: they are both at low tide. Luís Montenegro “overtakes” António Costa and sinks, especially in parts of the sample such as men, people living in the south and on the islands and people aged 65 or over (57% negative evaluations), in the latter group. It’s especially important when it comes to leaving the house and going to the polls. The Social Democratic leader only achieves a positive balance among his voters, but a quarter still give him a negative rating.
Ventura’s critics
André Ventura remains the party leader with the highest percentage of negative evaluations. And there are three segments of the sample that are particularly critical: those who live in the Porto metropolitan area, those who are 65 years or older and those who have better incomes.
The only politician who comes close to the waterline is Livre deputy Rui Tavares: he has a negative balance, but only one point. And there is even a positive balance between Lisbon residents and the elderly. In July, Rui Rocha (Liberal Initiative) and Mariana Mortágua (Bloco de Esquerda) had reached a neutral balance (both positive and negative), but in October they are already in the red, the Liberal with eight points negative balance and the blocista with 16 .
DATA SHEET
Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 805 effective interviews: 680 online interviews and 125 telephone interviews; 382 men and 423 women; 185 between 18 and 34 years, 212 between 35 and 49 years, 195 between 50 and 64 years and 213 for people over 65; Norte 279, Centro 161, Sul e Ilhas 118, AM Lisboa 247. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between October 18 and 24, 2023. Response rate: 68.68%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
Source: DN
