The news of António Costa’s political death was clearly exaggerated from the moment that criminal investigating judge Nuno Costa found the Public Prosecutor’s suspicions about the pressure exerted on the outgoing Prime Minister in favor of a center to be unfounded. Spoiler alert: the political experts interviewed by News diary I doubt that the man who seemed destined to surpass Cavaco Silva’s longevity in power has a way back, because of everything that has been set in motion in Portuguese politics, and even more so because of the expected slowness of justice meted out by Costa himself was called in to said Saturday: “I will most likely never hold public office again.”

Regarding the first question, which has already resulted in the announcement of early parliamentary elections on March 10 and the presentation of the candidacies of José Luís Carneiro and Pedro Nuno Santos for the leadership of the PS, one could say that António Costa was hasty. in submitting his resignation to the President of the Republic, claiming that he did so because he was the target of a criminal case? António Costa Pinto is adamant about possible precipitation: “No, on the contrary”. According to him, Costa “would have been forced to resign somehow”, while there is no other possible route for “a sitting Prime Minister to face a judicial investigation, even though there may be little evidence”.

Contra Costa, according to the political scientist, also competes with “the culture of the PS that is in power after the recovery of the Sócrates case”, and has since repeated itself as a slogan: “Just right what belongs to justice”. A phrase also mentioned by Pedro Nuno Santos when it came to the succession of the PS Secretary General, many years before what would have been in his predictions.

On the contrary, for José Adelino Maltez, António Costa was “very impulsive” in pushing through his dismissal, presented to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and communicated to the Portuguese on November 7. But the political scientist admits that the prime minister made this decision because he ‘knew the reality much better’ Operation Influencerwhich is terrible because it leads to conspiracy theories.”

The possibility of a return to political life, even before leaving it behind for good, is a scenario that Adelino Maltez, by taking on the role of “character analyst”, avoids at a time when two candidates are competing for the leadership of the PS. Even as he agrees that “Costa will probably not be able to hold public office because this process will take years.”

Regarding the change in circumstances due to developments in the legal process, political scientist Patrícia Calca acknowledges that “the information available is no longer what we thought last week, today’s reality is not the same and the story counts a lot”. And it identifies a “media campaign” that began Saturday evening with television communications, in which António Costa distanced himself from his former chief of staff, Vítor Escária, and manager Diogo Lacerda Machado, from whom he withdrew the status of “best friend.”

However, the political scientist also does not forget the complex situation in which the outgoing prime minister finds himself. “If on the one hand you have to try to defend your name, you cannot leave your party in the abyss.” A threat that is already reflected in voting intentions, with a party that achieved an absolute majority less than two years ago, with 41.37% of the vote, always below 30% in the most recent polls.

“Whoever is responsible for the crises will be held responsible at the next electoral moment,” says Patrícia Calca, for whom the widespread perception that the Public Prosecutor’s suspicions contain relevant evidence, with António Costa and other current or former members of their government involved, it could be. Punishing the PS, as the leadership of the 2022 state budget belonged to the PCP and the Bloco de Esquerda.

For António Costa, the compensation remains that “from left to right no one questioned the seriousness of the Prime Minister”, in what Patrícia Calca sees as “a departure from the situation of José Sócrates”. Something that could lead to ‘return to a relevant position’. And it could even be a few kilometers from the Presidency of the Council of Ministers.

Belém objective

António Costa is skilled with words, a practice honed over decades of politics and eight years as Prime Minister, during which he had to communicate with Portuguese nationals who had the insight that “the wall was being demolished” that separated the PS of parties on the left. Until the fight against the pandemic that has killed hundreds of Portuguese every day, one nuance went relatively unnoticed in Saturday’s speech. Although he stuck to the prediction that he will no longer hold public office, he eventually added the word “directors.” Something that could make a big difference as Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s second presidential term comes to an end

The hypothesis that the total acquittal of António Costa could pave the way for his candidacy in the 2026 presidential elections, even if there are alternatives in the socialist camp such as Augusto Santos Silva or Francisco Assis, could be more plausible than a high position in the European Union. Union. “It could happen if, as Marcelo suggested, justice is swift,” António Costa Pinto acknowledges.

However, the political scientist points out that “there has never been an innocent prime minister” and that “the parties tend not to politically bring back those who were victims of judicial suspicions that were not proven”, citing examples such as those of the socialist Paulo Pedroso and the social democrat Miguel Macedo.