If a winning team doesn’t move, what should someone do who just took control of a team that wants to keep winning? In the case of Pedro Nuno Santos, elected general secretary of the PS, with 62% of the militants’ votes, the first indications of the recipe for maintaining the power that António Costa obtained and managed between 2015 and 2023 suggest , a desire to reconcile the situation. speech on continuity with the previous eight years and the changes necessary to respond to areas where “all is not well”.

Pedro Nuno Santos will rely on his main political allies for this, starting with the current Minister of Environment and Climate Action, Duarte Cordeiro, with whom he has had a close relationship politically and personally since the time they were active in the Socialist Youth. And even though Cordeiro has become closer to António Costa, who elevated him to campaign manager in the 2019 parliamentary elections, the level of trust and recognition of political capacity makes it very difficult to imagine a possible future socialist executive in which he is not a pillar, possibly in infrastructure management, where the new airport in the Lisbon region will dominate the beginning of the parliamentary term.

In the same way, Marina Gonçalves, from chief of staff to the then Secretary of State for Parliamentary Affairs during the project to Secretary of State and Minister of Housing, strengthened her status in Pedro Nuno Santos’ entourage. Since the solution to the problem of the lack of affordable housing for the income level of a large part of Portuguese is a constant in the speeches of the new PS leader, it will also be essential to have one more in the next government to keep close.

Also highlighted is the former Minister of State Modernization, Alexandra Leitão, who was responsible for coordinating the motion for Santos’ candidacy for Secretary General of the PS, “systematizing ideas for so many problems that still exist.” In connection with the left wing of the PS, the lawyer and university professor is seen as one of the party’s safe values ​​and can play an important role in supporting the new Secretary General on a path that, as he himself told some interlocutors has adopted , “will only become Prime Minister.”

With other very active supporters, such as the mayor of Matosinhos, Luísa Salgueiro, who is the current leader of the National Association of Portuguese Municipalities – and could run for a new term in the municipal councils from 2025 –, the Minister of Health Manuel Pizarro, the Minister of Education João Costa and the deputy and president of the Porto City Council, Tiago Barbosa Ribeiro, Pedro Nuno Santos, will still have to decide what role he will attribute to the main rival in the internal dispute, José Luís Carneiro, and his supporters . Including power brokers in António Costa’s executive branch, such as Secretary of State for the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, André Moz Caldas, it is more doubtful that, despite the new leader’s willingness to govern according to the guidelines of the 2024 state budget , the holder of the financial portfolio, Fernando Medina, is part of the equation.

Also unclear is the future of the Minister of Parliamentary Affairs, Ana Catarina Mendes, and her brother, António Mendonça Mendes, Deputy Secretary of State to the Prime Minister and President of the Setúbal Federation of the PS, who have withdrawn from the succession process by António Costa . And that of the Minister of the Presidency, Mariana Vieira da Silva, the second figure in the government organization.

And it is still necessary to take into account what former critics of the device might do, who have now, with some surprise, given support to the main defender within the PS. Starting with the President of the Economic and Social Council, Francisco Assis, for whom a ministerial portfolio or the presidency of the Assembly of the Republic may be reserved, but without including the deputies Marcos Perestrello (President of the Parliamentary Defense Commission) and Sérgio Sousa forgotten Pinto (chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs). And Álvaro Beleza, president of SEDES, who formalized his support after a lunch near Santa Maria Hospital, where the doctor works.

Options in the parliamentary group

Now that the current Socialist parliamentary group has many supporters of José Luís Carneiro, from the current President Eurico Brilhante Dias to the Vice-Presidents Jamila Madeira, Maria Antónia Almeida Santos and Berta Nunes, several names stand out to demonstrate the coordination between Largo do Rato and the Assembly of the Republic.

Everything will depend on whether the PS will be government or opposition after the March 10 parliamentary elections. In the worst case scenario, Pedro Nuno Santos, who was unable to prevent the inauguration of Luís Montenegro as Prime Minister – even if the Social Democratic leader sets the bar high and makes his takeover dependent on the extent to which he receives the most votes – The advantage is that he has a more prominent figure at his side, such as Duarte Cordeiro, who already has experience as Secretary of State for Parliamentary Affairs, or Alexandra Leitão.

If the legislature allows the cycle of socialist rule to continue, several names stand out. Among the current vice-presidents of the PS bank, Francisco César, João Torres, Miguel Costa Matos and Pedro Delgado Alves are valid options. The former was entitled to a thank you from Pedro Nuno Santos as campaign manager in the internal elections and gained great fame upon his debut in the Assembly of the Republic, to which he was elected in 2019, after serving as deputy of the Regional Legislative Assembly of the Republic. the Azores, a region governed by his father, Carlos César, the current president of the PS (and supporter of the new Secretary General in the internal campaign). And a solution like that of João Torres will have gained ground.

In a scenario where the PS must add support to the left, this time also with Livre (and ultimately with PAN) to compensate for the possible collapse of the PCP, the still general secretary of the Socialist Youth, Miguel Costa Matos, will be able to guarantee consensus with interlocutors such as Mariana Mortágua, Paulo Raimundo and Rui Tavares. Although the same can also be said about the constitutionalist media journalist Pedro Delgado Alves, who was also the head of the Socialist Youth, after Duarte Cordeiro and before João Torres.

“Doer” did not want to make too many compromises at the moment of victory

Pedro Nuno Santos’ victory was seen as the most likely outcome since he presented his candidacy for PS secretary general. It became practically inevitable when the results became official in the federations voting on Friday, and it was confirmed early Saturday. night. Earlier than expected, although slightly below the best prospects of his supporters, the Socialists’ preliminary results indicate 60.8% of militants under the former Minister of Infrastructure, while the current Minister of the Interior, José Luís Carneiro, 37, 4%.

At the moment of victory, and despite supporters and opponents repeating many times that Pedro Nuno Santos’ candidacy had been finalized down to the last detail many years ago, António Costa’s successor gave an impromptu speech in which he promised virtually nothing regarding victory. the direction he will defend in the next parliamentary elections. He even reminded that the congress will still take place and that the election manifesto will be presented.

There was time to pay tribute to the predecessor, for now only as regards the PS. “We are extremely proud of the work he has done and the results of his administration,” said Pedro Nuno Santos, listing the achievements of António Costa’s governments, such as “the unprecedented increase” in the national minimum wage, the extraordinary increases in the lowest pensions and the commitment to balance the public accounts. In this regard, he said he is ready to govern in accordance with the 2024 state budget.

Still, he acknowledged some shortcomings and admitted that “all is not well” at the National Health Service. After something that professionals and users could diagnose as acute euphemismitis, he said that the solution that the PS will defend under his leadership is “It is not the intention to give it up or privatize it, or, as some say, give it to to be filled with the private sector.” Nevertheless, he emphasized that he respects the role of private individuals in healthcare, just as he praised entrepreneurs who “create value and jobs” with their companies.

Already at the stage of the journalists’ questions, after a speech in which he repeated the phrase “all of Portugal” that served as the motto for his candidacy, contrasting it with “a country that drags its feet”, “a country that lets things go” happen’, the new socialist leader refused to answer questions about alliances after the elections. However, given the mentions of the term device, of which he was the main articulator in the PS between 2015 and 2019, he clarified that he rarely used the term, “because there was no problem with the device, because it was stable and worked well ” .

To Pedro Nuno Santos, who once again defended the ‘rescue of TAP’ and insulted Luís Montenegro by accusing the PSD of ‘launching working groups on top of committees’, when it comes to the choice of the location of the new Lisbon airport: said José Luis Carneiro. The Interior Minister said it was up to the new leadership to ensure “the unity and plurality” of the party, but assured that he was available to contribute so that the PS remains “open, pluralistic and democratic” . able to “conduct a dialogue with the entire Portuguese society”.

“We are united in the goal of serving Portugal,” said José Luís Carneiro, who emphasized that he had led a candidacy that had “some of the most remarkable results so far among the non-winning candidates,” counting the vote of 14,891 activists. 37.4%), according to preliminary results released by the PS.

Much more modest was the result of the third candidate for the office of Secretary General, Daniel Adrião, who received only 382 votes in these elections, after gaining some fame as the face of the internal opposition against António Costa. Elza Pais, for her part, was re-elected leader of the Socialist Women, defeating Teresa Fragoso.