António Costa reaches the end of his time as Prime Minister with a positive balance among the Portuguese. According to a survey by Aximage for DN, JN and TSF, more people give a good rating (41%) to their eight years in government than those who give a negative evaluation (36%). There is also a greater number (39%) of those who believe their performance will have a positive impact on the PS’s results, even though the majority (48%) understand that they should not participate in the campaign.

The country was rocked by an unprecedented political crisis on November 7. After an investigation by the Public Prosecutor’s Office, the Prime Minister submitted his resignation, which was immediately accepted by the President of the Republic, who a few days later would choose to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic and schedule early elections for March 10. . Everything pointed to the end of António Costa’s long political career. A death that was perhaps announced too early. Since then, the still prime minister has devoted himself to interviews, official proclamations and individual interventions. And he seems to have turned the tide in his favor.

No unanimity

The last time Aximage’s barometer for DN, JN and TSF measured the then Prime Minister’s performance, last October, the balance was 22 negative points (more negative evaluations than positive ones). António Costa has been in the red since July 2022 (just six months after gaining an absolute majority in the polls) and his rating has deteriorated over the past year. But if one now asks what assessment they are making, not of the last thirty days, but of the entire eight years of government, then the balance is positive.

However, when analyzing the different segments of the sample, it becomes clear that there is no unanimity. The Costa Consulate’s evaluation is more generous in the two oldest categories, especially among those over 65 (positive balance of 23 points); and more corrosive in the two youngest age groups, especially in the 18 to 34 age group (negative balance of 14 points). At the regional level, the balance is negative in the Porto metropolitan area and the Center (two points) and the best result is in the South and the Islands (positive balance of 20 points). When the analysis focuses on party segments, there are no surprises: the most satisfied are those who vote on the left (especially socialists), while voters on the right give a very negative assessment.

Positive for PS

Both António Costa and his successor, Pedro Nuno Santos, have already made it clear that the legacy of these eight years will also be put to the vote in the March 10 elections. And there are more (39%) who think this will have a positive impact on the PS election outcome than those who think it will have negative consequences (30%). Among the first group, those living in the South are mainly men, elderly and socialist voters; the second features young people and those who vote for the three main parties on the right.

Finally, 39% also want to see António Costa alongside Pedro Nuno Santos in the Socialists’ election campaign. A wish that the Prime Minister has already expressed more than once and that the new PS leader has welcomed. But there are even more people who don’t think it’s a good idea (48%), especially those living in Porto, young people and women (53%).

Marcelo negative for the first time

The president has been in decline since October. All he has left are PSD voters.

It was guessed that this could happen and Aximage’s December barometer for DN, JN and TSF confirms: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa registers a negative balance for the first time in the evaluation of the Portuguese (more negative scores than positive ones). The only segment of the sample in which the president remains above the waterline are the PSD voters.
After a spike in popularity last July, following the conflict with António Costa and the “regrettable” episode involving João Galamba, the president began to blame the wear and tear. In the October assessment, the country lost strength and in November, after deciding to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic and bring forward the elections, it achieved only four positive points. In December, when the case of the Portuguese-Brazilian twins marked the media agenda, it fell to a negative balance of 17 points.

When analyzing the geographical segments, Marcelo is in the red in all regions: the Center remains the most favorable terrain (negative balance of two points) and Porto the most biting (negative balance of 34 points). The trend towards less tolerance among men is again confirmed (negative balance of 26 points), but what is new about this barometer is that women now also give a negative assessment of the President of the Republic (negative balance of 10 points).

If we take into account the voters’ party preferences, Marcelo only remains alive among the Social Democrats (albeit with a significant erosion, from 37 to 7 positive points). Socialist voters, who were the main pillar of the president’s popularity, finally abandoned him (from a positive 46 points in October to a negative 20 points in December).

DATA SHEET

Opinion poll conducted by Aximage for DN/JN/TSF. Universe: Individuals over 18 years of age living in Portugal. Quota sample, obtained from a matrix crossing gender, age and region. The sample had 805 effective interviews: 688 online interviews and 117 telephone interviews; 390 men and 415 women; 174 between 18 and 34 years, 209 between 35 and 49 years, 230 between 50 and 64 years and 192 for people over 65; Norte 277, Centro 175, Sul e Ilhas 122, AM Lisboa 231. Technique: Online application (CAWI) of a structured questionnaire to a panel of individuals meeting the predetermined quota for people aged 18 years or older; telephone interviews (CATI) from the same subuniverse questionnaire used by Aximage, filling the same quotas for those aged 50 and over and others. Fieldwork took place between December 18 and 23, 2023. Response rate: 72.22%. The maximum sampling error of this study, for a 95% confidence interval, is +/- 3.5%. Responsibility for the research: Aximage, under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.